13959 E Montgomery Rd · Scottsdale, AZ 85262

$1,350,000

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,581 sqft · Land · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 1.00 ac lot $295/sqft · at area comps Est $1406k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover what our pre-designed custom home has to offer. The kitchen boasts luxurious finishes, such as, stainless steel WOLF appliances, upgraded 42'' upper cabinets w/ crown molding, ample countertop space & a large center island. The adjacent informal dining area provides a comfortable & convenient space. The great room is filled with natural light, a CUSTOM Fireplace Accent Wall & a sliding glass door lets in even more. The homes boasts plenty of room for everyone w/ a GUEST LIVING area w/ separate entry. The spa-like primary bathroom includes a BEACH ENTRY shower, dual-sink vanity, a soaking tub, & a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living, dining, and entertaining on the covered patio, and take advantage of the 4-car garage. ESTIMATED COMPLETION in July/Aug.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Custom home
• Natural light

Tags

• CUSTOM HOME
• UPGRADED 42 UPPER CABINETS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• INFORMAL DINING AREA
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CUSTOM FIREPLACE ACCENT WALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath land listed at $1.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-59k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $639k (52.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $559k (58.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $559k (58.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 588 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($178k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $40k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.31M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $558,953 (58.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.60%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 20.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,405,815
• List price: $1,350,000
• Delta: -3.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-531,637
• Equity at exit: $201,289

10-year hold

• IRR: -87.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.29×
• Total profit: $-865,588
• Equity at exit: $116,723

Cash invested: $378,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85262

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 588
• Price-to-rent: 20.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,080
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,688 /mo · $20,250/yr
• Insurance: −$562
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,174
• Net cashflow: $-4,914

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,810

Max offer price $638,963

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $337,500
• Closing costs: $40,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14214 E Gamble Ln Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	4.0	3346	$20,000	$5.98	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 797-char remark

   Show marketing remark (797 chars)

   Discover what our pre-designed custom home has to offer. The kitchen boasts luxurious finishes, such as, stainless steel WOLF appliances, upgraded 42'' upper cabinets w/ crown molding, ample countertop space & a large center island. The adjacent informal dining area provides a comfortable & convenient space. The great room is filled with natural light, a CUSTOM Fireplace Accent Wall & a sliding glass door lets in even more. The homes boasts plenty of room for everyone w/ a GUEST LIVING area w/ separate entry. The spa-like primary bathroom includes a BEACH ENTRY shower, dual-sink vanity, a soaking tub, & a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living, dining, and entertaining on the covered patio, and take advantage of the 4-car garage. ESTIMATED COMPLETION in July/Aug.

2. 2026-03-13
   listed $1,350,000 Active 797-char remark

   Show marketing remark (797 chars)

   Discover what our pre-designed custom home has to offer. The kitchen boasts luxurious finishes, such as, stainless steel WOLF appliances, upgraded 42'' upper cabinets w/ crown molding, ample countertop space & a large center island. The adjacent informal dining area provides a comfortable & convenient space. The great room is filled with natural light, a CUSTOM Fireplace Accent Wall & a sliding glass door lets in even more. The homes boasts plenty of room for everyone w/ a GUEST LIVING area w/ separate entry. The spa-like primary bathroom includes a BEACH ENTRY shower, dual-sink vanity, a soaking tub, & a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living, dining, and entertaining on the covered patio, and take advantage of the 4-car garage. ESTIMATED COMPLETION in July/Aug.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$75,621
• − Property taxes: −$20,250
• − Insurance: −$6,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,366
• − Management: −$5,366
• − Depreciation: −$39,273
• Taxable loss: −$85,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20,532
• After-tax cash flow: $-38,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,329
• Household income: $177,790
• Rent vs Own: 3.1% rent · 96.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.65%
• Current HPI: 286.3814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $1,350,000 ARMLS