20 Terrace Dr #20

Concord, CA 94518

$219,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,485/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $449/mo
• Annual: $5,392/yr
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.79%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $212k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#397 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodside Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #856 of 1,571 statewide, top 57%, 278 students, 32% FRL); Oak Grove Middle (math 8% / reading 19%, grade F, #468 of 498 statewide, top 94%, 720 students, 81% FRL); Ygnacio Valley High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 1,172 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 37% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mt. Diablo Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.8% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.