14925 GREAT SOUTHERN OVERLAND STAGE Rte Unit A12

Julian, CA 92036

$44,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 429 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,667/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax + insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $1,013/mo
• Annual: $12,159/yr
• Cap rate: 33.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.69%
• DSCR: 5.39
• 1% rule: 3.79%
• Cash to close: $12,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#684 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Julian Union Elementary (rural): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #791 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 33.9% vs local median 2.1% in Julian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.