14925 GREAT SOUTHERN OVERLAND STAGE Rte Unit A12 · Julian, CA 92036

$44,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 429 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 1990 Good condition 800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely remodeled 1 bedroom/1 bathroom Manufactured Home in Butterfield Community just outside of Julian. Butterfield is a Manufactured Home & RV community in Mason Valley near Julian surrounded by the beautiful Anza Borrego desert. Amenities include a general store, 3 swimming pools, clubhouse and nearby recreational trails. This is a family-friendly, all-ages park within the Julian school district with on-site bus pick up/drop off! Space rent is $500. Financing may be available with as little as 10% down. 6 MONTHS FREE SPACE RENT WITH CASH PURCHASE.

Key facts

• Recreational trails
• Remodeled
• Clubhouse

Tags

• REMODELED
• MANUFACTURED HOME
• BUTTERFIELD COMMUNITY
• SWIMMING POOLS
• CLUBHOUSE
• RECREATIONAL TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manager approval required for residency; Pets allowed (dogs and cats; number limit applies)
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Land lease of $500; Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: 1 uncovered parking space (total 1 parking space); Located in Butterfield park
• Utilities: Shared well water; Community septic
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (Model 445A); Mobile home remains on site; Has a view
• Construction: Mobile home approximately 13 ft wide by 33 ft long; Year built source: seller
• Exterior features: Community pool; Lot is level/flat

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (details not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry accessed via stairs; Kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available inside; Community laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.4% vs local median 2.1% in Julian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#684 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Julian Union Elementary (rural): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #791 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,680 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.69%
• DSCR: 4.99
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $51,544
• Equity at exit: $6,561

10-year hold

• IRR: 93.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.78×
• Total profit: $120,500
• Equity at exit: $3,804

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92036

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,551 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $921

Break-even live

Break-even rent $385

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 562-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $44,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $44,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 9 d/yr ≥102°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,489
• − Management: −$1,489
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $11,005
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,641
• After-tax cash flow: $8,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This remodeled manufactured home in a family-friendly community offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrades in landscaping, HVAC, and small outdoor spaces can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the property's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters
• Both Adding a small front porch or patio — Increases the living space and can be used for entertaining, enhancing both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the property's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Adding a small front porch or patio — Increases the living space and can be used for entertaining, enhancing both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Julian Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619140
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,445
• Composite: 35.07/100
• National rank: #9915
• State rank: #791 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Julian

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #684
• US rank: #20868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,128

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 13% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.21%
• Current HPI: 279.7035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $50,000 CRMLS