652 Payne Gulch Rd

Brook Forest, CO 80421

$125,000B-

1 bd · None ba · 780 sqft · Built 1936 · Other · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,838/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $635/mo
• Annual: $7,619/yr
• Cap rate: 13.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.05%
• DSCR: 2.07
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Platte Canyon School District No. 1 Of The County Of Park (rural): math 38% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #9 of 86 in CO (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deer Creek Elementary School (math 24% / reading 67%, grade D-, #268 of 966 statewide, top 28%, 400 students, 24% FRL); Fitzsimmons Middle School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C+, #31 of 270 statewide, top 13%, 169 students, 17% FRL); Platte Canyon High School (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 228 students, 14% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 144 units permitted in Park County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Park County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 2.8% in Brook Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.