652 Payne Gulch Rd · Brook Forest, CO 80421

$125,000

1 bd · None ba · 780 sqft · Other public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1936 $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique rustic Bailey cabin in a Special Use area in Payne Gulch. Enjoy getaways and weekends of hiking, biking, and backpacking from your own cozy cabin. A flat driveway and yard area invite you to picnic, play games, relax, and enjoy the sunsets. As evening falls, sit by the fire pit or warm yourself inside by the fire, then step out to enjoy dark sky nights, views of the Milky Way, and meteor showers. For the more outdoor adventurer, this cabin borders Lost Creek Wilderness and the Colorado Trail, with access to deep backcountry. Electricity makes cooking and entertaining fun and easy. The new and clean outhouse includes a drain for gray water from the kitchen, and it would be easy to install a fresh water cistern under the kitchen window next to the driveway. Set in a private 2-mile valley with a Special Use lease from the National Forest, these cabins are a rare find and a joy to own and use!

Key facts

• Private valley
• Flat driveway
• Fire pit

Tags

• FLAT DRIVEWAY
• FIRE PIT
• VIEWS OF THE MILKY WAY
• BORDERS LOST CREEK WILDERNESS
• ACCESS TO DEEP BACKCOUNTRY
• PRIVATE VALLEY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Payne Gulch HOA (voluntary); Annual association fee $150; Association fee covers road maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for four vehicles (total 4 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Sewer: Holding tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Unattached property; Individual ownership
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Borders National Forest; Level lot; Many trees; Secluded setting; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; Sunroom used as a bedroom (main level); Upper-level loft
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Wood burning stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 2.8% in Brook Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Platte Canyon School District No. 1 Of The County Of Park (rural): math 38% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #9 of 86 in CO (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deer Creek Elementary School (math 24% / reading 67%, grade D-, #268 of 966 statewide, top 28%, 400 students, 24% FRL); Fitzsimmons Middle School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C+, #31 of 270 statewide, top 13%, 169 students, 17% FRL); Platte Canyon High School (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 228 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 144 units permitted in Park County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Park County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.05%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $20,183
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $69,645
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80421

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $365/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,035

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $706	-5% $670	+0% $635	+5% $600	+10% $564
Rent	-10% $490	-5% $562	+0% $635	+5% $708	+10% $780
Rate	-1.0pp $698	-0.5pp $667	base $635	+0.5pp $603	+1.0pp $570

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $125,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $150,000 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Unique rustic Bailey cabin in a Special Use area in Payne Gulch. Enjoy getaways and weekends of hiking, biking, and backpacking from your own cozy cabin. A flat driveway and yard area invite you to picnic, play games, relax, and enjoy the sunsets. As evening falls, sit by the fire pit or warm yourself inside by the fire, then step out to enjoy dark sky nights, views of the Milky Way, and meteor showers. For the more outdoor adventurer, this cabin borders Lost Creek Wilderness and the Colorado Trail, with access to deep backcountry. Electricity makes cooking and entertaining fun and easy. The new and clean outhouse includes a drain for gray water from the kitchen, and it would be easy to install a fresh water cistern under the kitchen window next to the driveway. Set in a private 2-mile valley with a Special Use lease from the National Forest, these cabins are a rare find and a joy to own and use!

17. 2026-05-14
    listed $150,000 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Unique rustic Bailey cabin in a Special Use area in Payne Gulch. Enjoy getaways and weekends of hiking, biking, and backpacking from your own cozy cabin. A flat driveway and yard area invite you to picnic, play games, relax, and enjoy the sunsets. As evening falls, sit by the fire pit or warm yourself inside by the fire, then step out to enjoy dark sky nights, views of the Milky Way, and meteor showers. For the more outdoor adventurer, this cabin borders Lost Creek Wilderness and the Colorado Trail, with access to deep backcountry. Electricity makes cooking and entertaining fun and easy. The new and clean outhouse includes a drain for gray water from the kitchen, and it would be easy to install a fresh water cistern under the kitchen window next to the driveway. Set in a private 2-mile valley with a Special Use lease from the National Forest, these cabins are a rare find and a joy to own and use!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $365 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $688 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$323/yr (+$27/mo · 88.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥80°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$365
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $5,950
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,428
• After-tax cash flow: $6,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Platte Canyon School District No. 1 Of The County Of Park
• NCES district ID: 0802370
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,757
• Composite: 46.03/100
• National rank: #2523
• State rank: #9 of 86 in CO

Livability — Brook Forest

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,601

Population outlook (Park County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,411 people
• By 2030: 17,584 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 17,261 · -0.9%
• By 2050: 16,115 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 14,174 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 11,928 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Park

• 2024 margin: R (+16.5) · D 40.2% · R 56.7% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.5 2020: R+17.0 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.29%
• Current HPI: 322.1809
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $150,000 IRES
• 2026-05-14 Listed $150,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $365 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.