3651 Delmar Dr

Millcreek, PA 16506

$259,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,320/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$452
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $23/mo
• Annual: $278/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($278/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (10.4% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $232k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grandview El Sch (math 55% / reading 69%, grade B, #313 of 1,518 statewide, top 24%, 659 students, 46% FRL); Walnut Creek Ms (math 43% / reading 72%, grade B, #61 of 512 statewide, top 13%, 449 students, 31% FRL); Mcdowell Hs (math 76% / reading 50%, grade B-, #72 of 437 statewide, top 16%, 2,205 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $259k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.