3651 Delmar Dr · Millcreek, PA 16506

$259,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1967 10,019 sqft lot Est $281k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath ranch located in the desirable Brentwood Hills subdivision. This home features an open kitchen with quartz countertops, a large center island, and great flow into the living and dining areas. Enjoy a cozy family room with a wood-burning fireplace, plus a large living room perfect for entertaining. A bright sunroom overlooks the fenced-in yard, offering additional year-round living space. The property also includes an oversized heated garage, ideal for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. Home is being sold as-is, providing a great opportunity to add your personal touch.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large center island
• Cozy family room

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• COZY FAMILY ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BRIGHT SUNROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Landscaped corner lot; Paved road access; Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1); Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($278/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grandview El Sch (math 55% / reading 69%, grade B, #313 of 1,518 statewide, top 24%, 659 students, 46% FRL); Walnut Creek Ms (math 43% / reading 72%, grade B, #61 of 512 statewide, top 13%, 449 students, 31% FRL); Mcdowell Hs (math 76% / reading 50%, grade B-, #72 of 437 statewide, top 16%, 2,205 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $259k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $232,023 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,232
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3031 W 38th St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,560 (+3%)	0mo	$290,000	$186	67
2902 Marcella Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,608 (+6%)	4mo	$220,000	$137	65
3515 Pacific Ave	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,333 (-12%)	1mo	$240,000	$180	65
2324 W 32nd St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,396 (-8%)	0mo	$225,000	$161	63
2116 W 34 St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,464 (-3%)	3mo	$319,900	$219	62
3003 Harvest Bnd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,436 (-5%)	3mo	$287,900	$200	59
4218 Amherst Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-5%)	0mo	$380,000	$264	58
3910 Calico Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+13%)	5mo	$265,900	$156	57
2845 W 31st St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-14%)	1mo	$219,900	$169	50
2925 Harvest Bnd	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,356 (-10%)	7mo	$275,000	$203	49
2829 Feasler Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-11%)	2mo	$153,000	$114	49
3118 Greeley Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,298 (-14%)	4mo	$285,000	$220	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-40,449
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-33,133
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16506

• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,291

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $96	+0% $23	+5% $-50	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-69	+0% $23	+5% $115	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $89	base $23	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2857 Willowood Dr Unit 2901 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	45d	1	0.32mi
4500 Hammocks Dr Erie, PA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1312	$3,270	$2.49	45d	7	0.45mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536404 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,290	$1.62	45d	1	0.48mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 542401 Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1327	$2,160	$1.63	45d	1	0.48mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536204 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,275	$1.61	45d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 618-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $259,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,125 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,125 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$4,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$978
• After-tax cash flow: $1,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Millcreek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,070
• Household income: $81,060
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.21%
• Current HPI: 228.7506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+97.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $259,000 GEBOR
• 2010-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,125 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.