3109 Adelwood Cir

Aurora, IL 60503

$564,213D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,841 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,765/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,959
• Tax + insurance: −$940
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-1,715/mo
• Annual: $-20,578/yr
• Cap rate: 2.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.03%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $157,980

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $564k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (44.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (51.0% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($497k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $276k (51.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#232 in IL, #4,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• CUSD 308 (suburban): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #179 of 620 in IL (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$97k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.5% in Aurora — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.