11818 Button Willow Cv

San Antonio, TX 78213

$200,000C

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,231 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 237 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$670
• HOA: −$16
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $185/mo
• Annual: $2,218/yr
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.96%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Larkspur El (math 18% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 882 students, 90% FRL); Churchill H S (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #634 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 2,510 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 41% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.3%/yr); 104 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,430/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 2375% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.