2255 Middle Ridge Dr

Conroe, TX 77301

$219,990D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,254 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,967/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$606
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-244/mo
• Annual: $-2,923/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $61,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (10.6% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 12471% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.