168 Howard Lipford Dr

Valley Forge, TN 37643

$10,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,949 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,437/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,451
• Tax + insurance: −$888
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-1,204/mo
• Annual: $-14,451/yr
• Cap rate: 2.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.04%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $77,492

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $10k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carter County (suburban): math 16% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #119 of 139 in TN (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley Forge Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 202 students, 0% FRL); Hampton High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #197 of 332 statewide, top 60%, 439 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 41.5% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 184 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.