168 Howard Lipford Dr · Valley Forge, TN 37643

$10,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,949 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1963 0.76 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LISTING PRICE GIVING BY NO MEANS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED THE ASKING PRICE, THE STARTING BID NOR THE FINAL CONTRACT PRICE. LISTING PRICE GIVEN TO BE ABLE TO POPULATE TO THIRD PARTY WEBSITE PROVIDERS. Solid all-brick ranch with 4-car garage capacity Selling at live public auction Saturday June 20th @ 10:00 am. Here's a rare opportunity to own a well-built, all-brick ranch home in Carter County -- one with exceptional structure, tremendous storage, and a layout that simply makes sense. Sitting on an irregular 200x165 lot in the established Dayton Nance subdivision, this 1,949 sq. ft. home has been in the same family since 1968 and is now ready for its next chapter. Step through the entry foyer in

Key facts

• All brick ranch
• Irregular lot
• Covered porch space

Tags

• ALL BRICK RANCH
• IRREGULAR LOT
• DEDICATED WORKSHOP SPACE
• 2 CAR ATTACHED GARAGE
• DETACHED GARAGE
• COVERED PORCH SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Lot approximately 0.76 acres (dimensions ~304 x 161)
• Financial info: No financial details provided
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Dayton Nance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage presence (4 garage spaces); Driveway with asphalt surface
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Built as house (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Patio; Level topography; Workshop (other structure)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Fireplace in the living room; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

🔨 Auction listing. The $10,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $276,758 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carter County (suburban): math 16% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #119 of 139 in TN (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley Forge Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 202 students, 0% FRL); Hampton High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #197 of 332 statewide, top 60%, 439 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 184 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 41.5% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $9,850 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.04%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,758
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
177 Howard Lipford Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,988 (+2%)	14mo	$261,000	$131	74
1439 Riverview Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,984 (+2%)	6mo	$460,000	$232	69
121 Garrison Hollow Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+2%)	15mo	$249,900	$126	68
105 Meredith Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (-13%)	6mo	$239,900	$141	54
2600 Stateline Road Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-8%)	6mo	$275,000	$153	52
157 Coal Chute Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,040 (+5%)	12mo	$229,500	$113	50
3109 Siam Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,108 (+8%)	22mo	$300,000	$142	37
204 Clay Little Rd	0.69mi	3/2.5	2,080 (+7%)	20mo	$357,500	$172	34
124 Earl Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,752 (-10%)	23mo	$350,000	$200	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -53.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-121,260
• Equity at exit: $41,266

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.62×
• Total profit: $-203,197
• Equity at exit: $23,929

Cash invested: $77,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37643

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 0.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,451
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,151/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-1,204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,961

Max offer price $102,507

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,013	-5% $-1,109	+0% $-1,204	+5% $-1,300	+10% $-1,395
Rent	-10% $-1,318	-5% $-1,261	+0% $-1,204	+5% $-1,147	+10% $-1,091
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,065	-0.5pp $-1,134	base $-1,204	+0.5pp $-1,276	+1.0pp $-1,349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,190
• Closing costs: $8,303
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $10,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $10,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $10,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $10,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $10,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $10,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $10,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $10,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $10,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $10,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $10,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,503
• − Property taxes: −$4,151
• − Insurance: −$6,502
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − Depreciation: −$8,051
• Taxable loss: −$19,726
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,734
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carter County
• NCES district ID: 4700510
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $33,744
• Composite: 15.92/100
• National rank: #9253
• State rank: #119 of 139 in TN

Livability — Valley Forge

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Forge, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,690

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,493 people
• By 2030: 52,639 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 47,929 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 42,877 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 31,487 · -42.2%
• By 2100: 21,979 · -59.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.2) · D 17.9% · R 81.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.1pp toward R · 2008: -47.2pp · 2024: -63.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.2 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+47.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.08%
• Current HPI: 321.4024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $10,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,087 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.