3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
852 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 12 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,200/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$786
Tax + insurance
−$363
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$252
Net cashflow
$-201/mo
Annual
$-2,410/yr
Cap rate
4.69%
Cash-on-cash
-5.74%
DSCR
0.74
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$41,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (23.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (19.9% below list).
Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $114k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#438 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
Vestal Central School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #168 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Clayton Avenue Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 248 students, 49% FRL); Vestal Middle School (math 45% / reading 64%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 781 students, 31% FRL); Vestal Senior High School (math 100%, 1,000 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 17% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-N06BDW85Q5B453
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29