27306 El Lado Rd

Millerton, CA 93626

$430,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,058 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,857/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$494
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $-492/mo
• Annual: $-5,906/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-492 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (33.6% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $286k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sierra Unified (rural): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #212 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Foothill Elementary (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #552 of 1,571 statewide, top 35%, 660 students, 47% FRL); Sierra Junior High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade D, #130 of 498 statewide, top 27%, 185 students, 36% FRL); Sierra High (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 399 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $430k implies a 353% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.