27306 El Lado Rd · Millerton, CA 93626

$430,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,058 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2009 0.45 ac lot Est $399k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the rolling foothills of Friant and overlooking the breathtaking beauty of Millerton Lake, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a rare blend of comfort, privacy, and endless potential. Designed to capture the surrounding scenery, the home features generously sized rooms, beautiful granite countertops, a tankless water heater, and an expansive walk-in closet in the primary suite. Perched gracefully on the hillside, the property showcases stunning panoramic views where vibrant sunsets paint the sky and reflect across the lake, creating a truly unforgettable backdrop to everyday living. Tucked away on a private drive, the setting feels tranquil and secluded, yet remains just

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2009

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From Millerton Rd, head north on Sky Harbour Rd; stay on Sky Harbour until El Lado Rd. Driveway to residence is on the right.; Located in Fresno County

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service on; Public sewer; Public utilities available; Propane
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Composition roof; Concrete foundation; Built with public records as source of living area
• Exterior features: One level; Foothill lot setting

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat and air
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; Inside laundry with gas dryer hookup; Central heating and cooling
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-492 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sierra Unified (rural): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #212 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Foothill Elementary (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #552 of 1,571 statewide, top 35%, 660 students, 47% FRL); Sierra Junior High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade D, #130 of 498 statewide, top 27%, 185 students, 36% FRL); Sierra High (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 399 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $430k implies a 353% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,705 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $399,252
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27415 Sky Harbour Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,077 (+1%)	9mo	$790,000	$380	77
27397 Aqua Vista Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,192 (+6%)	23mo	$425,000	$194	65
28489 Perkins Rd	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,806 (-12%)	18mo	$430,000	$238	41
28162 Sky Harbour Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,316 (+12%)	22mo	$370,000	$160	38
28162 Sky Harbour Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,316 (+12%)	22mo	$370,000	$160	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $202,747
• Equity at exit: $387,378

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $621,523
• Equity at exit: $835,395

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93626

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,782/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $-492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,480

Max offer price $343,049

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-249	-5% $-371	+0% $-492	+5% $-614	+10% $-736
Rent	-10% $-718	-5% $-605	+0% $-492	+5% $-379	+10% $-267
Rate	-1.0pp $-276	-0.5pp $-383	base $-492	+0.5pp $-604	+1.0pp $-717

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on marketlisting id $430,000 Pending
2. 2026-05-22
   listed $430,000 Active
3. 2002-12-24
   soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,782 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,782 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 61 unhealthy d/yr today · 69 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$3,782
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,743
• − Management: −$2,743
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$13,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,295
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636805
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $67,384
• Composite: 36.91/100
• National rank: #4539
• State rank: #212 of 517 in CA

Livability — Millerton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,039

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 16% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.30%
• Current HPI: 334.9049
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+352.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $430,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2002-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,782 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.