W211N11782 Hilltop Cir

Germantown, WI 53022

$58,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,929/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$825
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $298/mo
• Annual: $3,573/yr
• Cap rate: 12.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.00%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 3.33%
• Cash to close: $16,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#229 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Germantown School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #52 of 342 in WI (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 453 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (105 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.1% in Germantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.