W211N11782 Hilltop Cir · Germantown, WI 53022

$58,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily · 200 Days on market

Built 1999 $825/mo HOA · 43% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS IS A MOBILE HOME! MONTHLY LOT RENTAL IS $825 PER MONTH AND INCLUDES GARBAGE PICK UP AND ROAD MAINTENANCE. WATER/SEWER RANGES $20-$30/MONTH AND PERSONAL PROPERTY TAX IS $26.12/MONTH, MAKING YOUR TOTAL PAYMENT MONTHLY $871.12!. IF NOT CASH BUYER THIS WILL TAKE SPECIAL FINANCING! Gorgeous open concept mobile home can be yours today! Low maintenance living! Huge Great Room with vaulted ceilings opens up to the large kitchen with nice eat-in dinette area and center island. All appliances included! To your right are 2 nice sized BRs and a full bath with a shower/tub combo. To the opposite side of the home is the MBR suite complete with a huge closet, and bath with separate shower stall and s

Key facts

• Open concept
• Large kitchen
• Huge great room

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• HUGE GREAT ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• EAT-IN DINETTE AREA
• CENTER ISLAND
• HUGE CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.1% in Germantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#229 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Germantown School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #52 of 342 in WI (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 453 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (105 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.

Recommended offer $51,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.00%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $10,100
• Equity at exit: $8,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $35,390
• Equity at exit: $5,015

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53022

• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$825
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,552

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $825 · $9,900/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-07
   listed $58,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − HOA: −$9,900
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $3,444
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$826
• After-tax cash flow: $2,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown School District
• NCES district ID: 5505160
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $80,496
• Composite: 43.66/100
• National rank: #2961
• State rank: #52 of 342 in WI

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #6122

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, WI
• County: Washington County · 47,863 people
• City population: 20,046
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,046
• Household income: $100,890
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 137,678 people
• By 2030: 138,441 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 137,047 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 130,918 · -4.9%
• By 2075: 115,447 · -16.1%
• By 2100: 93,069 · -32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Asian 7% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.3) · D 31.3% · R 67.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -36.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.3 2020: R+38.1 2016: R+40.5 2012: R+40.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.24%
• Current HPI: 169.5534
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — SCWMLS
• 2025-09-07 Listed $58,000 SCWMLS