12719 Burninglog Ln

Dallas, TX 75243

$117,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,684 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,921/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$385
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $324/mo
• Annual: $3,888/yr
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.87%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $32,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $117k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Richardson ISD (urban): math 40% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stults Road El (math 21% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 569 students, 83% FRL); Forest Meadow J H (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 750 students, 72% FRL); Lake Highlands H S (math 38% / reading 45%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,896 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 54% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.3%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.