10 Kempton Ct

Lawrence, MA 01841

$1,500,000D-

9 bd · 6.0 ba · 5,576 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,926/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,866
• Tax + insurance: −$1,298
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,714
• Net cashflow: $1,048/mo
• Annual: $12,574/yr
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.18%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $420,000

Investor read

• This is a 6 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $175/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.29M (13.8% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.48M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.29M (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#133 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, employment D-.
• Lawrence (suburban): math 10% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #300 of 302 in MA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lawrence High School (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #284 of 343 statewide, top 83%, 3,084 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 83% district-wide (83 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1,032 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (590 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $360k; list at $1.50M implies a 317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.