2931 Sleepy Hollow Rd

Athens, NY 12015

$440,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,674/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$733
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-928/mo
• Annual: $-11,135/yr
• Cap rate: 3.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.04%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $123,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-928 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (30.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (39.2% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $267k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#785 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Coxsackie-Athens Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #384 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edward J Arthur Elementary School (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 184 students, 40% FRL); Coxsackie-Athens Middle School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 364 students, 41% FRL); Coxsackie-Athens High School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A, #379 of 1,100 statewide, top 36%, 365 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.