2931 Sleepy Hollow Rd · Athens, NY 12015

$440,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Built 1992 0.91 ac lot $272/sqft · 21% below area Est $556k · 21% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to easy living in the desirable Sleepy Hollow Lake community. This bright and inviting 3-bedroom home is set on a generous . 91-acre lot, offering both privacy and space to relax and unwind. Step inside to an open-concept layout with soaring ceilings and abundant natural light. The great room serves as the heart of the home, featuring a wood-burning fireplace insert--perfect for cozy evenings and gathering with family and friends. The modern kitchen is both stylish and functional, seamlessly connecting to the main living space for effortless everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, the loft-style primary bedroom provides a unique and airy retreat, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, home office, or hobbies. Enjoy all that Sleepy Hollow Lake has to offer, including private lake access, beaches, swimming pools, tennis and pickleball courts, marina, clubhouse, and year-round community events--creating a true lifestyle, not just a home. Ideally located just minutes from the charming riverfront towns of Athens and Coxsackie, and a short drive to the vibrant shops, dining, and arts scene of Hudson, as well as the ski slopes and outdoor adventures of Windham and Hunter Mountain. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence or weekend escape, this home offers comfort, connection, and the best of Hudson Valley living.

Key facts

• Swimming pools
• Modern kitchen
• Private lake access

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE INSERT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LOFT-STYLE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• PRIVATE LAKE ACCESS
• SWIMMING POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-928 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (30.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (39.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#785 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Coxsackie-Athens Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #384 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edward J Arthur Elementary School (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 184 students, 40% FRL); Coxsackie-Athens Middle School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 364 students, 41% FRL); Coxsackie-Athens High School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A, #379 of 1,100 statewide, top 36%, 365 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $267,444 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.04%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $555,768
• List price: $440,000
• Delta: -20.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2914 Sleepy Hollow Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,793 (+11%)	7mo	$543,250	$303	67
26 Debbie Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-1%)	9mo	$459,000	$287	54
31 Constantine Ct	0.72mi	3/3.0	1,545 (-5%)	13mo	$370,000	$239	40
119 Sleepy Hollow Rd	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+7%)	14mo	$374,000	$216	39
170 Debbie Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-4%)	24mo	$475,000	$304	38
100 Debbie Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-7%)	17mo	$325,000	$215	36
29 Constantine Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,437 (-11%)	20mo	$387,500	$270	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $66,011
• Equity at exit: $274,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $241,041
• Equity at exit: $496,014

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12015

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,674 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$550 /mo · $6,600/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-928

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,849

Max offer price $305,727

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-624	-5% $-776	+0% $-928	+5% $-1,080	+10% $-1,232
Rent	-10% $-1,139	-5% $-1,034	+0% $-928	+5% $-822	+10% $-717
Rate	-1.0pp $-706	-0.5pp $-816	base $-928	+0.5pp $-1,042	+1.0pp $-1,158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $440,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $440,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $440,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $440,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $440,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $440,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $440,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $440,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $440,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $440,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $440,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $440,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $440,000 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $440,000 Active 68 DOM
18. 2026-05-10
    price $440,000 1361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1361 chars)

    Welcome to easy living in the desirable Sleepy Hollow Lake community. This bright and inviting 3-bedroom home is set on a generous . 91-acre lot, offering both privacy and space to relax and unwind. Step inside to an open-concept layout with soaring ceilings and abundant natural light. The great room serves as the heart of the home, featuring a wood-burning fireplace insert--perfect for cozy evenings and gathering with family and friends. The modern kitchen is both stylish and functional, seamlessly connecting to the main living space for effortless everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, the loft-style primary bedroom provides a unique and airy retreat, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, home office, or hobbies. Enjoy all that Sleepy Hollow Lake has to offer, including private lake access, beaches, swimming pools, tennis and pickleball courts, marina, clubhouse, and year-round community events--creating a true lifestyle, not just a home. Ideally located just minutes from the charming riverfront towns of Athens and Coxsackie, and a short drive to the vibrant shops, dining, and arts scene of Hudson, as well as the ski slopes and outdoor adventures of Windham and Hunter Mountain. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence or weekend escape, this home offers comfort, connection, and the best of Hudson Valley living.

19. 2026-03-23
    listed $460,000 Active 1361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1361 chars)

    Welcome to easy living in the desirable Sleepy Hollow Lake community. This bright and inviting 3-bedroom home is set on a generous . 91-acre lot, offering both privacy and space to relax and unwind. Step inside to an open-concept layout with soaring ceilings and abundant natural light. The great room serves as the heart of the home, featuring a wood-burning fireplace insert--perfect for cozy evenings and gathering with family and friends. The modern kitchen is both stylish and functional, seamlessly connecting to the main living space for effortless everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, the loft-style primary bedroom provides a unique and airy retreat, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, home office, or hobbies. Enjoy all that Sleepy Hollow Lake has to offer, including private lake access, beaches, swimming pools, tennis and pickleball courts, marina, clubhouse, and year-round community events--creating a true lifestyle, not just a home. Ideally located just minutes from the charming riverfront towns of Athens and Coxsackie, and a short drive to the vibrant shops, dining, and arts scene of Hudson, as well as the ski slopes and outdoor adventures of Windham and Hunter Mountain. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence or weekend escape, this home offers comfort, connection, and the best of Hudson Valley living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$6,600
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,567
• − Management: −$2,567
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$19,288
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,629
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coxsackie-Athens Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608490
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $55,006
• Composite: 42.8/100
• National rank: #3143
• State rank: #384 of 590 in NY

Livability — Athens

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #785
• US rank: #15102

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Athens, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,084

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 426.3034
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $440,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $460,000 HVCRMLS