Onyx Plan

Fairchilds, TX 77469

$272,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 324 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,129/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-736/mo
• Annual: $-8,838/yr
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.02%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $97,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-736 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (22.0% below list).
• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,450 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.