Onyx Plan · Fairchilds, TX 77469

$272,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · SingleFamily · 324 Days on market

↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The stellar Onyx floor plan fits any lifestyle. Providing excellent curb appeal, relax and enjoy your coffee or visit with your neighbors out on the spacious front porch. Upon entry to your new home, you are greeted with your secondary and third bedrooms, with your second bedroom featuring a walk-in closet. Across from the third bedroom lies your full secondary bathroom for your guests' convenience. Just a little ways down the foyer and you are met by your conjoined, welcoming family room and dining area making this the perfect space for entertaining friends and family. Opening up to the dining area is your spacious kitchen with ample granite counterspace paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances that make a stunning impression on your home. Head toward the back of the kitchen to find your convenient utility room with a mud area to keep your shoes, coats, or whatever you desire stored away. From this area, you have access to your backyard with an optional covered patio that's perfect for the outdoor enthusiasts in the family. The backyard also grants you external access to your two-car garage. Adjacent to the kitchen is your private master suite complete with cultured marble countertops with the option for dual vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, as well as your large walk-in closet. Enhance your master bathroom by opting to include a super shower with standard dual vanities instead!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Spacious kitchen
• Dining area

Tags

• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULL SECONDARY BATHROOM
• CONJOINED FAMILY ROOM
• DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

🏗️ New construction. The $272,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $349,900.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-736 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,450 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,862 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.02%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,900
• List price: $272,990
• Delta: -21.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4638 North Star Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+7%)	3mo	$349,900	$203	79
4647 North Star Trl	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+8%)	1mo	$324,900	$186	78
4618 Hydra Ln	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+8%)	2mo	$374,900	$215	72
10710 Midnight Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,753 (+9%)	2mo	$329,000	$188	70
4638 Hydra Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,736 (+8%)	4mo	$389,900	$225	65
4655 Hydra Ln	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,785 (+11%)	1mo	$324,900	$182	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-109,811
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-179,998
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,248/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,061

Max offer price $243,332

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-495	-5% $-616	+0% $-736	+5% $-857	+10% $-978
Rent	-10% $-905	-5% $-821	+0% $-736	+5% $-652	+10% $-568
Rate	-1.0pp $-560	-0.5pp $-647	base $-736	+0.5pp $-827	+1.0pp $-919

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $272,990 Active 324 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,990 Active 321 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,990 Active 320 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,990 Active 319 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,990 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,990 Active 316 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $272,990 Active 312 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $272,990 Active 311 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $272,990 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $272,990 Active 307 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $272,990 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,990 Active 305 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,990 Active 304 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,990 Active 303 DOM
15. 2026-02-14
    price $272,990 1489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1489 chars)

    The stellar Onyx floor plan fits any lifestyle. Providing excellent curb appeal, relax and enjoy your coffee or visit with your neighbors out on the spacious front porch. Upon entry to your new home, you are greeted with your secondary and third bedrooms, with your second bedroom featuring a walk-in closet. Across from the third bedroom lies your full secondary bathroom for your guests' convenience. Just a little ways down the foyer and you are met by your conjoined, welcoming family room and dining area making this the perfect space for entertaining friends and family. Opening up to the dining area is your spacious kitchen with ample granite counterspace paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances that make a stunning impression on your home. Head toward the back of the kitchen to find your convenient utility room with a mud area to keep your shoes, coats, or whatever you desire stored away. From this area, you have access to your backyard with an optional covered patio that's perfect for the outdoor enthusiasts in the family. The backyard also grants you external access to your two-car garage. Adjacent to the kitchen is your private master suite complete with cultured marble countertops with the option for dual vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, as well as your large walk-in closet. Enhance your master bathroom by opting to include a super shower with standard dual vanities instead!

16. 2026-02-04
    status Active 1489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1489 chars)

    The stellar Onyx floor plan fits any lifestyle. Providing excellent curb appeal, relax and enjoy your coffee or visit with your neighbors out on the spacious front porch. Upon entry to your new home, you are greeted with your secondary and third bedrooms, with your second bedroom featuring a walk-in closet. Across from the third bedroom lies your full secondary bathroom for your guests' convenience. Just a little ways down the foyer and you are met by your conjoined, welcoming family room and dining area making this the perfect space for entertaining friends and family. Opening up to the dining area is your spacious kitchen with ample granite counterspace paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances that make a stunning impression on your home. Head toward the back of the kitchen to find your convenient utility room with a mud area to keep your shoes, coats, or whatever you desire stored away. From this area, you have access to your backyard with an optional covered patio that's perfect for the outdoor enthusiasts in the family. The backyard also grants you external access to your two-car garage. Adjacent to the kitchen is your private master suite complete with cultured marble countertops with the option for dual vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, as well as your large walk-in closet. Enhance your master bathroom by opting to include a super shower with standard dual vanities instead!

17. 2026-02-03
    historical 1489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1489 chars)

    The stellar Onyx floor plan fits any lifestyle. Providing excellent curb appeal, relax and enjoy your coffee or visit with your neighbors out on the spacious front porch. Upon entry to your new home, you are greeted with your secondary and third bedrooms, with your second bedroom featuring a walk-in closet. Across from the third bedroom lies your full secondary bathroom for your guests' convenience. Just a little ways down the foyer and you are met by your conjoined, welcoming family room and dining area making this the perfect space for entertaining friends and family. Opening up to the dining area is your spacious kitchen with ample granite counterspace paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances that make a stunning impression on your home. Head toward the back of the kitchen to find your convenient utility room with a mud area to keep your shoes, coats, or whatever you desire stored away. From this area, you have access to your backyard with an optional covered patio that's perfect for the outdoor enthusiasts in the family. The backyard also grants you external access to your two-car garage. Adjacent to the kitchen is your private master suite complete with cultured marble countertops with the option for dual vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, as well as your large walk-in closet. Enhance your master bathroom by opting to include a super shower with standard dual vanities instead!

18. 2025-07-31
    listed $284,990 Active 1489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1489 chars)

    The stellar Onyx floor plan fits any lifestyle. Providing excellent curb appeal, relax and enjoy your coffee or visit with your neighbors out on the spacious front porch. Upon entry to your new home, you are greeted with your secondary and third bedrooms, with your second bedroom featuring a walk-in closet. Across from the third bedroom lies your full secondary bathroom for your guests' convenience. Just a little ways down the foyer and you are met by your conjoined, welcoming family room and dining area making this the perfect space for entertaining friends and family. Opening up to the dining area is your spacious kitchen with ample granite counterspace paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances that make a stunning impression on your home. Head toward the back of the kitchen to find your convenient utility room with a mud area to keep your shoes, coats, or whatever you desire stored away. From this area, you have access to your backyard with an optional covered patio that's perfect for the outdoor enthusiasts in the family. The backyard also grants you external access to your two-car garage. Adjacent to the kitchen is your private master suite complete with cultured marble countertops with the option for dual vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, as well as your large walk-in closet. Enhance your master bathroom by opting to include a super shower with standard dual vanities instead!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$5,248
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$15,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,677
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fairchilds

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1450
• US rank: #24783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-31 Listed $284,990 Zillow