2038 Marsh Rd

Arden, DE 19810

$399,999D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,100 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,932/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$399
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $-181/mo
• Annual: $-2,173/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (26.7% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $293k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#10 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Brandywine School District (suburban): math 28% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #11 of 26 in DE (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forwood Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #78 of 105 statewide, top 78%, 351 students, 0% FRL); Talley Middle School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #26 of 36 statewide, top 71%, 841 students, 0% FRL); Brandywine High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #12 of 40 statewide, top 31%, 950 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 38% district-wide (38 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,367 units permitted in New Castle County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Castle County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $400k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.1% in Arden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.