2038 Marsh Rd · Arden, DE 19810

$399,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1956 0.38 ac lot $190/sqft · 17% below area Est $482k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One-of-a-kind Cape Cod in highly sought-after North Wilmington on a beautifully landscaped 0.38-acre lot in the Brandywine School District with convenient access to I-95. Zoned Business Neighborhood, previously approved for daycare use, offering exceptional flexibility for residential, multi-generational living, or home business potential. This 2,100+ sq. ft. home features an extended driveway with parking for up to nine vehicles. The main level includes three bedrooms and two full baths, including a primary suite with sitting area. Living room with stone wood-burning fireplace opens to dining area and kitchen with double wall ovens, center island seating, custom shelving, refaced cabinetry

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached home; Above-grade finished living area reported by assessor
• Construction: Stucco and stone exterior; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 62 x 275; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level; Two bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms (two on main level, one on first upper level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Attic fan; Ceiling fans; Window AC units; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Stone fireplace (1); Full basement; Level entry at main

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.1% in Arden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#10 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Brandywine School District (suburban): math 28% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #11 of 26 in DE (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forwood Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #78 of 105 statewide, top 78%, 351 students, 0% FRL); Talley Middle School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #26 of 36 statewide, top 71%, 841 students, 0% FRL); Brandywine High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #12 of 40 statewide, top 31%, 950 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 38% district-wide (38 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,367 units permitted in New Castle County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• New Castle County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $400k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $293,165 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $482,360
• List price: $399,999
• Delta: -17.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2212 Grubb Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,035 (-3%)	6mo	$440,000	$216	84
2213 Jones Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	2,150 (+2%)	1mo	$540,000	$251	80
2115 Coventry Dr	0.13mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,150 (+2%)	2mo	$487,000	$227	75
2201 Jamaica Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,875 (-11%)	1mo	$530,000	$283	74
113 Scotts Way	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,975 (-6%)	1mo	$540,000	$273	71
1905 Harvey Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,050 (-2%)	6mo	$225,000	$110	67
2213 Riviera Ln	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,944 (-7%)	4mo	$515,000	$265	63
2106 Millers Rd	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,880 (-10%)	6mo	$425,000	$226	57
2036 Floral Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,806 (-14%)	3mo	$455,000	$252	47
2407 Larkwood Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,825 (-13%)	1mo	$475,000	$260	45
2414 Caney Rd	0.59mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,300 (+10%)	3mo	$540,000	$235	41
12 W Dale Rd	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,400 (+14%)	3mo	$595,000	$248	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-72,465
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-61,549
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19810

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,793/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,161

Max offer price $368,010

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $-68	+0% $-181	+5% $-294	+10% $-408
Rent	-10% $-413	-5% $-297	+0% $-181	+5% $-65	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-79	base $-181	+0.5pp $-285	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1911 Longcome Dr Wilmington, DE	4.0	3.0	2075	$3,400	$1.64	26d	1	0.74mi
309 Rockmeade Dr Wilmington, DE	3.0	2.5	2390	$3,000	$1.26	18d	1	0.91mi
1807 Graywell Rd Wilmington, DE	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,400	$1.60	6d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,999 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,999 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,999 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,999 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,999 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,999 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,999 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,999 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,999 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,999 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,999 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,999 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,999 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,999 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $399,999 Active 1180-char remark
16. 2026-05-11
    historical $399,999 1180-char remark
17. 2020-05-15
    historical
18. 2019-08-18
    listed $325,000 Active
19. 1998-12-30
    soldstatus $139,000
20. 1983-08-01
    soldstatus $77,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DE · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,793 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,793 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$2,793
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,814
• − Management: −$2,814
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$9,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,228
• After-tax cash flow: $55/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brandywine School District
• NCES district ID: 1001240
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $68,743
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #6019
• State rank: #11 of 26 in DE

Livability — Arden

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #5672

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: New Castle County · 483,412 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,530
• Household income: $112,775
• Rent vs Own: 18.8% rent · 81.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 620.0

Population outlook (New Castle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 594,686 people
• By 2030: 609,164 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 632,154 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 649,068 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 687,771 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 694,961 · +16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · New Castle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.6) · D 65.5% · R 32.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: 40.6pp · 2024: 32.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.6 2020: D+37.1 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+34.1 2008: D+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.75%
• Current HPI: 239.5077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.34%
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+419.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $399,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Coming Soon $399,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-18 Listed $325,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,793 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.