621 S Parsons St

Big Lake, AK 99623

$90,000B

1 bd · None ba · 800 sqft · Built 2013 · Other · Active · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,469/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $593/mo
• Annual: $7,111/yr
• Cap rate: 14.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.22%
• DSCR: 2.26
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $593 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.3% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.