621 S Parsons St · Big Lake, AK 99623

$90,000

1 bd · None ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 174 Days on market

Built 2013 Poor condition 0.93 ac lot $112/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unfinished cabin with upper and lower level on .93 acres. Mostly a shell on piling foundation. Nice corner lot backs up to State land. Banya/steam house near cabin. Near lakes, trails, and recreation! Owner financing available with large down.

Key facts

• Banya steam house
• Near trails
• Near recreation

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BACKS UP TO STATE LAND
• BANYA STEAM HOUSE
• NEAR LAKES
• NEAR TRAILS
• NEAR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 2.8% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Lake Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 382 students, 74% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 542 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.01%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,499
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -63.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13425 W Upper Birch Dr	0.78mi	1/1.0	800 (0%)	0mo	$339,000	$424	65
12716 W Hawk Ln	0.86mi	2/1.0 (+1)	762 (-5%)	7mo	$249,000	$327	46
12422 W Birch Rd	0.99mi	2/1.0 (+1)	832 (+4%)	21mo	$275,000	$331	36
2021 S Birch Lake Dr	1.18mi	2/1.0 (+1)	832 (+4%)	24mo	$265,000	$319	33
1777 S Lodge Dr	1.18mi	2/1.0 (+1)	768 (-4%)	28mo	$160,000	$208	33
14732 W Peaceful Pl	0.82mi	2/1.0 (+1)	964 (+20%)	8mo	$215,000	$223	29
2098 S Lodge Dr	1.39mi	2/2.0 (+1)	988 (+24%)	16mo	$275,000	$278	21
1794 S Simms Rd	0.96mi	2/1.0 (+1)	924 (+16%)	34mo	$220,000	$238	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $19,097
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $60,637
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,384 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $719

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $576	-5% $551	+0% $525	+5% $500	+10% $474
Rent	-10% $416	-5% $471	+0% $525	+5% $580	+10% $635
Rate	-1.0pp $571	-0.5pp $548	base $525	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-07-29
   days on market $90,000 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-07-27
   days on market $90,000 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-07-25
   days on market $90,000 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-07-24
   days on market $90,000 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-07-23
   days on market $90,000 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-22
   days on market $90,000 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-07-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-07-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-07-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-07-16
    days on market $90,000 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-07-14
    days on market $90,000 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-07-14
    days on market $90,000 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-07-12
    days on market $90,000 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-07-11
    days on market $90,000 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-07-10
    days on market $90,000 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-07-09
    days on market $90,000 Active 154 DOM
17. 2026-07-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-07-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-07-06
    days on market $90,000 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-07-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 150 DOM
21. 2026-07-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 149 DOM
22. 2026-07-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 148 DOM
23. 2026-07-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 147 DOM
24. 2026-07-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 146 DOM
25. 2026-06-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 145 DOM
26. 2026-06-29
    days on market $90,000 Active 144 DOM
27. 2026-06-28
    days on market $90,000 Active 143 DOM
28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $90,000 Active 142 DOM
29. 2026-06-27
    days on market $90,000 Active 141 DOM
30. 2026-06-25
    days on market $90,000 Active 139 DOM
31. 2026-06-23
    days on market $90,000 Active 137 DOM
32. 2026-06-22
    days on market $90,000 Active 136 DOM
33. 2026-06-18
    days on market $90,000 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-06-17
    days on market $90,000 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-06-16
    days on market $90,000 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-06-15
    days on market $90,000 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-14
    days on market $90,000 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-06-13
    days on market $90,000 Active 127 DOM
39. 2026-06-10
    days on market $90,000 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $90,000 Active 124 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 123 DOM
42. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 122 DOM
43. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 118 DOM
44. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 117 DOM
45. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 116 DOM
46. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 115 DOM
47. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 114 DOM
48. 2026-02-05
    listed $90,000 Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Unfinished cabin with upper and lower level on .93 acres. Mostly a shell on piling foundation. Nice corner lot backs up to State land. Banya/steam house near cabin. Near lakes, trails, and recreation! Owner financing available with large down.

49. 2007-08-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$183/yr (+$15/mo · 26.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,329
• − Management: −$1,329
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $5,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,233
• After-tax cash flow: $5,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $40,000–$72,000 screening

This unfinished cabin requires extensive repairs and renovations to become livable and marketable. Immediate focus should be on the roof and exterior to ensure safety and improve curb appeal.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal · good

Deferred maintenance Est. $40,500–$122,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Major Windows (windows) — Significant damage to the window frame
• Major Electrical (electrical) — Exposed wiring and damaged insulation
• Major Exterior (exterior) — Severe rust and decay on exterior walls
• Major Other — Structural damage to the roof and walls

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Snow-covered, appears to be in disrepair
• Major exterior siding — Rusty siding, exposed framing
• Major interior walls — No interior walls visible
• Major bathrooms — No bathrooms visible
• Major kitchen — No kitchen visible
• Major systems — No systems visible

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Critical to the home's safety and appearance ↑
• Both exterior siding repair/replacement — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both interior walls and flooring — Creates livable space and enhances the home's value ↑
• Both bathroom and kitchen installations — Adds functionality and value ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Big Lake Elementary F AK #93/156 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Houston Middle School High Houston High School F AK #41/61 Nat'l #12,196/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

D Composite livability gradescore 58/100

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #20971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 126,730 people
• City population: 4,066
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $90,000 AKMLS
• 2007-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $705 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.