621 S Parsons St · Big Lake, AK 99623

$90,000

1 bd · None ba · 800 sqft · Other public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2013 0.93 ac lot $112/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unfinished cabin with upper and lower level on .93 acres. Mostly a shell on piling foundation. Nice corner lot backs up to State land. Banya/steam house near cabin. Near lakes, trails, and recreation! Owner financing available with large down.

Key facts

• Banya steam house
• Near trails
• Near recreation

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BACKS UP TO STATE LAND
• BANYA STEAM HOUSE
• NEAR LAKES
• NEAR TRAILS
• NEAR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $593 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.3% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.22%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,139
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -62.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $23,397
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $69,963
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,469 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $719

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $618	+0% $593	+5% $567	+10% $542
Rent	-10% $476	-5% $535	+0% $593	+5% $651	+10% $709
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $615	base $593	+0.5pp $569	+1.0pp $546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-02-05
    listed $90,000 Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Unfinished cabin with upper and lower level on .93 acres. Mostly a shell on piling foundation. Nice corner lot backs up to State land. Banya/steam house near cabin. Near lakes, trails, and recreation! Owner financing available with large down.

17. 2007-08-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$183/yr (+$15/mo · 26.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $5,996
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,439
• After-tax cash flow: $5,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #20971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• City population: 4,066
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $90,000 AKMLS
• 2007-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $705 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.