2977 County Route 49

Winthrop, NY 13668

$63,000B

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Active · 204 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,354/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $634/mo
• Annual: $7,612/yr
• Cap rate: 18.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.15%
• DSCR: 2.92
• 1% rule: 2.15%
• Cash to close: $17,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $63k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $63k).
• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($436 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,067 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Brasher Falls Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #499 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exposed brick wall — Structural damage
• Major: Broken windows — Safety hazard
• Major: Damaged roof tiles — Leakage risk