2977 County Route 49 · Winthrop, NY 13668

$63,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily · 204 Days on market

Built 1880 Poor condition 0.70 ac lot $41/sqft · 71% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

New price to help with repairs great Spring project, located outside of town in the Brasher school district. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, large main floor laundry room. Large rooms with some unique designs including the arched doorways, many older style solid wood doors and wainscoting. Wood stove in kitchen for toasty winter mornings, while enjoying your coffee or hot cocoa after playing in the snow. Large living room with an extra one if needed or use it for a main floor bedroom. Full bath on the main floor, great for larger families. Kitchen island is great for making food prep easier or additional workspace when the family is all there enjoying the holidays. Dining room for additional seating. Upstairs you will find 3 additional bedrooms and half bath. Cosmetic work needed on the walls and flooring through-out the home. The upstairs bathroom plumbing is not hooked up. There is an additional elect box in the closet downstairs that should be inspected by a licensed electrician. Main 200-amp CB in basement installed prior to this owner. There is a boiler in the basement that is in need of the pipes as they are not hooked up, present owner never used boiler. The exterior has vinyl siding and newer double pane windows; some work to be done outside with the piles of wood laying around. Newer metal roof. Showings should be done in the day light due to no power being on and will not be turned on for inspections. Call your realtor today for a private showing.

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Arched doorways
• Dining room

Tags

• ARCHED DOORWAYS
• SOLID WOOD DOORS
• WAINSCOATING
• WOOD STOVE
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $63k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,067 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Brasher Falls Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #499 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($436 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $55,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.15%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,258
• List price: $63,000
• Delta: -71.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $50,027
• Equity at exit: $30,475

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $119,076
• Equity at exit: $48,708

Cash invested: $17,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13668

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$79 /mo · $945/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $551

Max offer price $63,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,750
• Closing costs: $1,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $63,000 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $63,000 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $63,000 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $63,000 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $63,000 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $63,000 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $63,000 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $63,000 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $63,000 Active 193 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,000 Active 192 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $63,000 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $63,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $63,000 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $63,000 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $63,000 1472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1472 chars)

    New price to help with repairs great Spring project, located outside of town in the Brasher school district. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, large main floor laundry room. Large rooms with some unique designs including the arched doorways, many older style solid wood doors and wainscoting. Wood stove in kitchen for toasty winter mornings, while enjoying your coffee or hot cocoa after playing in the snow. Large living room with an extra one if needed or use it for a main floor bedroom. Full bath on the main floor, great for larger families. Kitchen island is great for making food prep easier or additional workspace when the family is all there enjoying the holidays. Dining room for additional seating. Upstairs you will find 3 additional bedrooms and half bath. Cosmetic work needed on the walls and flooring through-out the home. The upstairs bathroom plumbing is not hooked up. There is an additional elect box in the closet downstairs that should be inspected by a licensed electrician. Main 200-amp CB in basement installed prior to this owner. There is a boiler in the basement that is in need of the pipes as they are not hooked up, present owner never used boiler. The exterior has vinyl siding and newer double pane windows; some work to be done outside with the piles of wood laying around. Newer metal roof. Showings should be done in the day light due to no power being on and will not be turned on for inspections. Call your realtor today for a private showing.

16. 2025-11-26
    listed $69,900 Active 1472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1472 chars)

    New price to help with repairs great Spring project, located outside of town in the Brasher school district. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, large main floor laundry room. Large rooms with some unique designs including the arched doorways, many older style solid wood doors and wainscoting. Wood stove in kitchen for toasty winter mornings, while enjoying your coffee or hot cocoa after playing in the snow. Large living room with an extra one if needed or use it for a main floor bedroom. Full bath on the main floor, great for larger families. Kitchen island is great for making food prep easier or additional workspace when the family is all there enjoying the holidays. Dining room for additional seating. Upstairs you will find 3 additional bedrooms and half bath. Cosmetic work needed on the walls and flooring through-out the home. The upstairs bathroom plumbing is not hooked up. There is an additional elect box in the closet downstairs that should be inspected by a licensed electrician. Main 200-amp CB in basement installed prior to this owner. There is a boiler in the basement that is in need of the pipes as they are not hooked up, present owner never used boiler. The exterior has vinyl siding and newer double pane windows; some work to be done outside with the piles of wood laying around. Newer metal roof. Showings should be done in the day light due to no power being on and will not be turned on for inspections. Call your realtor today for a private showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,529
• − Property taxes: −$945
• − Insurance: −$315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$1,833
• Taxable income: $7,027
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,686
• After-tax cash flow: $5,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive rehabilitation, including structural repairs, landscaping, and window replacement, to become move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed brick wall — Structural damage
• Major Broken windows — Safety hazard
• Major Damaged roof tiles — Leakage risk

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both Rehabilitation of exposed brick walls — Enhances structural integrity and aesthetic appeal
• Both Rehabilitation of broken windows — Ensures safety and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed brick wall · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Broken windows · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Damaged roof tiles · Leakage risk	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Rehabilitation of exposed brick walls — Enhances structural integrity and aesthetic appeal ↑
• Both Rehabilitation of broken windows — Ensures safety and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brasher Falls Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627960
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,069
• Composite: 35.47/100
• National rank: #4926
• State rank: #499 of 590 in NY

Livability — Winthrop

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1067
• US rank: #21337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,313

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Current HPI: 318.2533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $63,000 SLCMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $69,900 SLCMLS