719 Lake Caroline Dr

Lake Caroline, VA 22546

$257,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,348
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$87
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $98/mo
• Annual: $1,174/yr
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.63%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $71,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $257k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (13.5% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#476 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lewis And Clark Elementary (math 53% / reading 64%, grade B-, #576 of 1,108 statewide, top 52%, 890 students, 75% FRL); Caroline Middle (math 36% / reading 67%, grade C, #222 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 973 students, 75% FRL); Caroline High (math 46% / reading 76%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,251 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 280 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $257k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Caroline — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.