428 Old State Rd

Redfield, NY 13437

$225,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,265/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-546/mo
• Annual: $-6,556/yr
• Cap rate: 3.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.41%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-546 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (42.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (43.8% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (43.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sandy Creek Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #425 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandy Creek Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 393 students, 49% FRL); Sandy Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #550 of 729 statewide, top 77%, 186 students, 53% FRL); Sandy Creek High School (math 95% / reading 95%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 213 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $225k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.