428 Old State Rd · Redfield, NY 13437

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1975 4.94 ac lot $127/sqft · 39% below area Est $367k · 39% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 428 Old State Road, located in the town of Redfield. You will enjoy the peace and serenity with this spacious Split Level property, situated on nearly 5 ACRES to embrace nature, with every season. This property features 4 bedrooms, 1 full bath, 1776 Square feet of living space, and 2 separate driveway entrances. You will love the first floor laundry, and the attached spacious 4 car garage. There are many wonderful upgrades to take advantage of. The Spacious Kitchen has been fully renovated, with new hardwood flooring, and newer appliances. You will have added peace of mind with a newer metal roof, Furnace and Water heater. Don't forget the large private pond, snowmobile trails, and many state parks in close proximity. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Snowmobile trails
• Newer appliances
• Newer metal roof

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NEW HARDWOOD FLOORING
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• LARGE PRIVATE POND
• SNOWMOBILE TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-546 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (42.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (43.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (43.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sandy Creek Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #425 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandy Creek Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 393 students, 49% FRL); Sandy Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #550 of 729 statewide, top 77%, 186 students, 53% FRL); Sandy Creek High School (math 95% / reading 95%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 213 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $225k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $126,504 (43.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.41%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,410
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -38.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $72,861
• Equity at exit: $186,848

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $238,887
• Equity at exit: $387,188

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13437

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,264/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,957

Max offer price $128,494

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-419	-5% $-483	+0% $-546	+5% $-610	+10% $-674
Rent	-10% $-646	-5% $-596	+0% $-546	+5% $-496	+10% $-446
Rate	-1.0pp $-433	-0.5pp $-489	base $-546	+0.5pp $-605	+1.0pp $-664

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-04-30
   price $225,000 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Welcome home to 428 Old State Road, located in the town of Redfield. You will enjoy the peace and serenity with this spacious Split Level property, situated on nearly 5 ACRES to embrace nature, with every season. This property features 4 bedrooms, 1 full bath, 1776 Square feet of living space, and 2 separate driveway entrances. You will love the first floor laundry, and the attached spacious 4 car garage. There are many wonderful upgrades to take advantage of. The Spacious Kitchen has been fully renovated, with new hardwood flooring, and newer appliances. You will have added peace of mind with a newer metal roof, Furnace and Water heater. Don't forget the large private pond, snowmobile trails, and many state parks in close proximity. Schedule your showing today.

6. 2026-04-10
   price $230,000 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Welcome home to 428 Old State Road, located in the town of Redfield. You will enjoy the peace and serenity with this spacious Split Level property, situated on nearly 5 ACRES to embrace nature, with every season. This property features 4 bedrooms, 1 full bath, 1776 Square feet of living space, and 2 separate driveway entrances. You will love the first floor laundry, and the attached spacious 4 car garage. There are many wonderful upgrades to take advantage of. The Spacious Kitchen has been fully renovated, with new hardwood flooring, and newer appliances. You will have added peace of mind with a newer metal roof, Furnace and Water heater. Don't forget the large private pond, snowmobile trails, and many state parks in close proximity. Schedule your showing today.

7. 2026-04-07
   listed $249,000 Active 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Welcome home to 428 Old State Road, located in the town of Redfield. You will enjoy the peace and serenity with this spacious Split Level property, situated on nearly 5 ACRES to embrace nature, with every season. This property features 4 bedrooms, 1 full bath, 1776 Square feet of living space, and 2 separate driveway entrances. You will love the first floor laundry, and the attached spacious 4 car garage. There are many wonderful upgrades to take advantage of. The Spacious Kitchen has been fully renovated, with new hardwood flooring, and newer appliances. You will have added peace of mind with a newer metal roof, Furnace and Water heater. Don't forget the large private pond, snowmobile trails, and many state parks in close proximity. Schedule your showing today.

8. 2004-08-11
   soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,264 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,533 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$269/yr (+$22/mo · 8.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,264
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$10,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,589
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sandy Creek Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,647
• Composite: 40.78/100
• National rank: #3642
• State rank: #425 of 590 in NY

Livability — Redfield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 254

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.02%
• Current HPI: 370.3607
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+147.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $225,000 CNYIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $230,000 CNYIS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $249,000 CNYIS
• 2004-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,264 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.