32 Azalea Cir

Jackson, NJ 08527

$249,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 943 sqft · Built 1988 · Townhouse · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,354/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$422
• HOA: −$368
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-236/mo
• Annual: $-2,834/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (5.4% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lucy N. Holman Elementary School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #710 of 1,303 statewide, top 55%, 498 students, 44% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle School (math 21% / reading 47%, grade F, #259 of 431 statewide, top 61%, 722 students, 42% FRL); Jackson Liberty High School (math 16% / reading 50%, grade F, #259 of 399 statewide, top 66%, 1,141 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 15% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.