32 Azalea Cir · Jackson, NJ 08527

$249,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 943 sqft · Townhouse public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1988 $264/sqft · 18% below area Est $305k · 18% under $368/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this updated Bayberry II model in 60 Acres. 1 bedroom 1 bath with Loft that has closet. Large living room with fireplace. Kitchen and separate dining area and outside storage closet complete this move in ready home.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• In-unit laundry
• Tennis courts

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• PEACEFUL SUBURBAN SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Other one-time fee
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee; HOA covers common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, management, pool(s), snow removal, and trash; Community amenities include basketball and tennis courts, outdoor pool, and common grounds

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Condominium ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)
• Exterior features: Community pool; Suburban setting; Above-grade structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (natural gas)
• Interior features: Living room; Loft; No basement; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lucy N. Holman Elementary School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #710 of 1,303 statewide, top 55%, 498 students, 44% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle School (math 21% / reading 47%, grade F, #259 of 431 statewide, top 61%, 722 students, 42% FRL); Jackson Liberty High School (math 16% / reading 50%, grade F, #259 of 399 statewide, top 66%, 1,141 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 15% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,284 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,721
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -18.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 Owls Nest Ct	0.17mi	1/1.0	943 (0%)	2mo	$240,000	$255	90
52 Snapdragon Ct	0.23mi	1/1.0	943 (0%)	2mo	$270,000	$286	87
400 Daisy Ct	0.07mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,033 (+10%)	3mo	$320,000	$310	73
606 Goldthread Ct	0.10mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,033 (+10%)	1mo	$281,000	$272	73
1502 Jasmine Ct	0.19mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,033 (+10%)	1mo	$259,999	$252	69
1403 Violet Ln	0.23mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,033 (+10%)	2mo	$290,000	$281	67
56 Orchard Ct	0.06mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,072 (+14%)	2mo	$258,000	$241	66
1201 Bluebell Dr	0.11mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,072 (+14%)	2mo	$335,000	$313	64
1604 Dahlia Ct	0.32mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,033 (+10%)	2mo	$300,000	$290	63
1101 Fern Ct	0.17mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,072 (+14%)	1mo	$331,500	$309	62
710 Ivy Ct	0.27mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,033 (+10%)	2mo	$300,000	$290	61
807 Begonia Ct	0.37mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,072 (+14%)	3mo	$319,000	$298	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-62,022
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-98,957
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,822/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$368
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,653

Max offer price $207,284

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-95	-5% $-166	+0% $-236	+5% $-307	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-422	-5% $-329	+0% $-236	+5% $-143	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-111	-0.5pp $-173	base $-236	+0.5pp $-301	+1.0pp $-366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
187 Azalea Cir Jackson, NJ	2.0	2.5	1072	$2,500	$2.33	6d	1	0.03mi
71 Azalea Cir Jackson, NJ	1.0	1.0	721	$2,300	$3.19	18d	1	0.07mi
40 Snapdragon Ct Jackson Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	980	$2,250	$2.30	8d	1	0.17mi
40 Snapdragon Ct Jackson, NJ	2.0	1.0	980	$2,250	$2.30	45d	1	0.17mi
106 Daffodil Dr Jackson, NJ	1.0	1.0	721	$1,825	$2.53	45d	1	0.18mi
2135 W County Line Rd Jackson, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	748	$1,800	$2.40	12d	5	0.94mi
330 S New Prospect Rd Jackson Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	819	$1,939	$2.37	45d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $368 · $4,416/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $249,000 Active 371-char remark
16. 2022-10-05
    soldstatus $210,000
17. 2022-09-21
    soldstatus $210,000 Sold 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Welcome to this updated Bayberry II model in 60 Acres. 1 bedroom 1 bath with Loft that has closet. Large living room with fireplace. Kitchen and separate dining area and outside storage closet complete this move in ready home.

18. 2022-09-16
    historical Active/Under Contract 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Welcome to this updated Bayberry II model in 60 Acres. 1 bedroom 1 bath with Loft that has closet. Large living room with fireplace. Kitchen and separate dining area and outside storage closet complete this move in ready home.

19. 2022-08-09
    status Pending 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Welcome to this updated Bayberry II model in 60 Acres. 1 bedroom 1 bath with Loft that has closet. Large living room with fireplace. Kitchen and separate dining area and outside storage closet complete this move in ready home.

20. 2022-08-03
    historical Active/Under Contract 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Welcome to this updated Bayberry II model in 60 Acres. 1 bedroom 1 bath with Loft that has closet. Large living room with fireplace. Kitchen and separate dining area and outside storage closet complete this move in ready home.

21. 2022-07-28
    listed $205,000 Active 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Welcome to this updated Bayberry II model in 60 Acres. 1 bedroom 1 bath with Loft that has closet. Large living room with fireplace. Kitchen and separate dining area and outside storage closet complete this move in ready home.

22. 2010-11-18
    listed $158,000
23. 2010-07-06
    listed $171,000
24. 2006-11-22
    soldstatus $175,000
25. 2003-10-06
    soldstatus $140,000
26. 2003-08-21
    historical
27. 2003-08-21
    listed $140,000
28. 2003-07-11
    soldstatus $135,000
29. 2001-09-14
    soldstatus $94,000
30. 2001-09-05
    soldstatus $94,000
31. 2001-08-22
    historical
32. 2001-07-12
    listed $104,675
33. 2000-06-05
    soldstatus $67,000
34. 2000-05-25
    soldstatus $67,000
35. 2000-04-19
    historical
36. 2000-04-16
    listed $68,500
37. 1986-04-25
    soldstatus $61,235

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,822 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,011 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,189/yr (+$99/mo · 31.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,822
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − HOA: −$4,416
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$6,943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,666
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Jackson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 58,991
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+306.6% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $249,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-21 Sold (MLS) $210,000 MOMLS
• 2022-09-16 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2022-08-09 Pending — MOMLS
• 2022-08-03 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2022-07-28 Listed $205,000 MOMLS
• 2010-11-18 Listed $158,000 MOMLS
• 2010-07-06 Listed $171,000 MOMLS
• 2006-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-21 Listed $140,000 MOMLS
• 2003-08-21 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2003-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2001-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2001-09-05 Sold (MLS) $94,000 MOMLS
• 2001-08-22 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2001-07-12 Listed $104,675 MOMLS
• 2000-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-25 Sold (MLS) $67,000 MOMLS
• 2000-04-19 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2000-04-16 Listed $68,500 MOMLS
• 1986-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $61,235 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,822 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.