644 16th St

Laguna Beach, FL 32413

$234,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 863 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,560/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-222/mo
• Annual: $-2,667/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $65,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (33.6% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#283 in FL, #4,522 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Bay Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 313 students, 50% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1272 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $235k implies a 379% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 0.9% in Laguna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.