644 16th St · Laguna Beach, FL 32413

$234,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 863 sqft · Townhouse public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1984 7,536 sqft lot $272/sqft · 44% below area Est $416k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover peaceful coastal living in the highly sought-after Laguna Beach / West End area of Panama City Beach! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom half-duplex home offers the perfect blend of relaxed residential charm and smart investment potential. Situated on a quiet residential street on a corner lot with a no-outlet cul-de-sac, traffic stays to a minimum. No HOA or CDD! No flood insurance required (Zone X). Just under 1 mile to public beach access, you’re only minutes from sugar-white sands and emerald Gulf waters—without the crowds, traffic, or tourist hustle of central PCB. Enjoy nearby hiking trails at Camp Helen State Park (5 miles). Grocery options are very convenient: Carousel Supermarket and Publix are both under 3 miles away, with additional shopping and dining just 6 miles east at Pier Park or Rosemary Beach / Seacrest a short drive further west. For the boaters, public boat ramps at Lake Powell Park or B. V. Buchanan Park are both under 15 minutes away. Perfect for first-time buyers seeking an affordable entry into beach-area living, VA military and veterans (convenient to Tyndall AFB and the VA West End Clinic), investors looking for a turnkey short- or long-term rental property, or those just wanting a quiet, low-maintenance retreat away from high-traffic zones. For investors or those seeking an income-producing second home, this property has a proven 5-year track record as a successful short-term rental, delivering excellent income potential. Additional features include an oversized double-driveway with plenty of room for an RV or 30' boat/trailer, plus a spacious fenced-in yard perfect for your pets, complete with a workshop and additional shed! Turnkey opportunity in one of Panama City Beach’s most desirable and peaceful West End pockets—where authentic beach lifestyle meets smart ownership!

Key facts

• Public beach access
• No-outlet cul-de-sac
• Public boat ramps

Tags

• LAGUNA BEACH AREA
• CORNER LOT
• NO-OUTLET CUL-DE-SAC
• PUBLIC BEACH ACCESS
• HIKING TRAILS
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 0.9% in Laguna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#283 in FL, #4,522 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1272 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $235k implies a 379% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,045 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,825
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -43.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-56,098
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-82,237
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32413

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 1272
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,503/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,842

Max offer price $195,640

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-89	-5% $-156	+0% $-222	+5% $-289	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-346	-5% $-284	+0% $-222	+5% $-161	+10% $-99
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-162	base $-222	+0.5pp $-283	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19610 Alta Vista Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	14d	1	0.57mi
21101 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$1,672	$1.67	14d	12	1.23mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $234,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $234,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $234,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 47 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 46 DOM
19. 2026-05-11
    price $254,900 1870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1870 chars)

    Discover peaceful coastal living in the highly sought-after Laguna Beach / West End area of Panama City Beach! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom half-duplex home offers the perfect blend of relaxed residential charm and smart investment potential. Situated on a quiet residential street on a corner lot with a no-outlet cul-de-sac, traffic stays to a minimum. No HOA or CDD! No flood insurance required (Zone X). Just under 1 mile to public beach access, you’re only minutes from sugar-white sands and emerald Gulf waters—without the crowds, traffic, or tourist hustle of central PCB. Enjoy nearby hiking trails at Camp Helen State Park (5 miles). Grocery options are very convenient: Carousel Supermarket and Publix are both under 3 miles away, with additional shopping and dining just 6 miles east at Pier Park or Rosemary Beach / Seacrest a short drive further west. For the boaters, public boat ramps at Lake Powell Park or B. V. Buchanan Park are both under 15 minutes away. Perfect for first-time buyers seeking an affordable entry into beach-area living, VA military and veterans (convenient to Tyndall AFB and the VA West End Clinic), investors looking for a turnkey short- or long-term rental property, or those just wanting a quiet, low-maintenance retreat away from high-traffic zones. For investors or those seeking an income-producing second home, this property has a proven 5-year track record as a successful short-term rental, delivering excellent income potential. Additional features include an oversized double-driveway with plenty of room for an RV or 30' boat/trailer, plus a spacious fenced-in yard perfect for your pets, complete with a workshop and additional shed! Turnkey opportunity in one of Panama City Beach’s most desirable and peaceful West End pockets—where authentic beach lifestyle meets smart ownership!

20. 2026-04-27
    price $265,000 1870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1870 chars)

    Discover peaceful coastal living in the highly sought-after Laguna Beach / West End area of Panama City Beach! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom half-duplex home offers the perfect blend of relaxed residential charm and smart investment potential. Situated on a quiet residential street on a corner lot with a no-outlet cul-de-sac, traffic stays to a minimum. No HOA or CDD! No flood insurance required (Zone X). Just under 1 mile to public beach access, you’re only minutes from sugar-white sands and emerald Gulf waters—without the crowds, traffic, or tourist hustle of central PCB. Enjoy nearby hiking trails at Camp Helen State Park (5 miles). Grocery options are very convenient: Carousel Supermarket and Publix are both under 3 miles away, with additional shopping and dining just 6 miles east at Pier Park or Rosemary Beach / Seacrest a short drive further west. For the boaters, public boat ramps at Lake Powell Park or B. V. Buchanan Park are both under 15 minutes away. Perfect for first-time buyers seeking an affordable entry into beach-area living, VA military and veterans (convenient to Tyndall AFB and the VA West End Clinic), investors looking for a turnkey short- or long-term rental property, or those just wanting a quiet, low-maintenance retreat away from high-traffic zones. For investors or those seeking an income-producing second home, this property has a proven 5-year track record as a successful short-term rental, delivering excellent income potential. Additional features include an oversized double-driveway with plenty of room for an RV or 30' boat/trailer, plus a spacious fenced-in yard perfect for your pets, complete with a workshop and additional shed! Turnkey opportunity in one of Panama City Beach’s most desirable and peaceful West End pockets—where authentic beach lifestyle meets smart ownership!

21. 2026-04-14
    listed $275,000 Active 1870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1870 chars)

    Discover peaceful coastal living in the highly sought-after Laguna Beach / West End area of Panama City Beach! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom half-duplex home offers the perfect blend of relaxed residential charm and smart investment potential. Situated on a quiet residential street on a corner lot with a no-outlet cul-de-sac, traffic stays to a minimum. No HOA or CDD! No flood insurance required (Zone X). Just under 1 mile to public beach access, you’re only minutes from sugar-white sands and emerald Gulf waters—without the crowds, traffic, or tourist hustle of central PCB. Enjoy nearby hiking trails at Camp Helen State Park (5 miles). Grocery options are very convenient: Carousel Supermarket and Publix are both under 3 miles away, with additional shopping and dining just 6 miles east at Pier Park or Rosemary Beach / Seacrest a short drive further west. For the boaters, public boat ramps at Lake Powell Park or B. V. Buchanan Park are both under 15 minutes away. Perfect for first-time buyers seeking an affordable entry into beach-area living, VA military and veterans (convenient to Tyndall AFB and the VA West End Clinic), investors looking for a turnkey short- or long-term rental property, or those just wanting a quiet, low-maintenance retreat away from high-traffic zones. For investors or those seeking an income-producing second home, this property has a proven 5-year track record as a successful short-term rental, delivering excellent income potential. Additional features include an oversized double-driveway with plenty of room for an RV or 30' boat/trailer, plus a spacious fenced-in yard perfect for your pets, complete with a workshop and additional shed! Turnkey opportunity in one of Panama City Beach’s most desirable and peaceful West End pockets—where authentic beach lifestyle meets smart ownership!

22. 2025-05-24
    historical $2,500
23. 2025-05-05
    listed $2,500
24. 2025-05-05
    historical $2,500
25. 2025-05-01
    historical $2,500
26. 2025-05-01
    listed $2,500
27. 2025-04-23
    listed $2,500
28. 2021-12-14
    historical
29. 2021-12-14
    historical
30. 2007-07-14
    listed $149,900
31. 2006-01-25
    listed $170,000
32. 1996-06-01
    soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,503 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$446/yr (+$37/mo · 29.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$1,503
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$6,940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,666
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Laguna Beach

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #4522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laguna Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,453
• Household income: $80,039
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 531.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 354.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+420.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $254,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-24 Rental Removed $2,500 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-05-05 Listed for Rent $2,500 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-05-05 Rental Removed $2,500 SHOWMOJO2
• 2025-05-01 Rental Removed $2,500 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-05-01 Listed for Rent $2,500 SHOWMOJO2
• 2025-04-23 Listed for Rent $2,500 SHOWMOJO
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2007-07-14 Listed $149,900 CPARMLS
• 2006-01-25 Listed $170,000 CPARMLS
• 1996-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,503 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.