8405 N Vassar Rd

Otisville, MI 48458

$84,150B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,431/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $539/mo
• Annual: $6,469/yr
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.45%
• DSCR: 2.22
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $23,562

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $582 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#266 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mt. Morris Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #511 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mt Morris Middle School (math 6% / reading 20%, grade F, #465 of 493 statewide, top 94%, 340 students, 84% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.3% in Otisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.