8405 N Vassar Rd · Otisville, MI 48458

$84,150

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · SingleFamily · 156 Days on market

Built 1920 0.60 ac lot ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.6 acres (110 x 238); Directions: On N Vassar between E Francis and E Mt Morris Rd
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Entry at ground level with steps; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Aluminum siding and other exterior materials; Stone foundation; Built area above grade: 1,676 square feet
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: One and one-half story layout
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Has heating (Forced Air, Natural Gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#266 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mt. Morris Consolidated Schools (suburban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #511 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mt Morris Middle School (math 6% / reading 20%, grade F, #465 of 493 statewide, top 94%, 340 students, 84% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $582 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,052 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.45%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,416
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8168 Vassar Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,634 (-2%)	12mo	$190,000	$116	60
7077 Lindale Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,766 (+5%)	8mo	$223,000	$126	48
7012 Arcadia Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+6%)	15mo	$157,000	$88	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $20,725
• Equity at exit: $12,547

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $62,370
• Equity at exit: $7,276

Cash invested: $23,562 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48458

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,431 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,383/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $749

Max offer price $84,150

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $587	-5% $563	+0% $539	+5% $515	+10% $491
Rent	-10% $426	-5% $483	+0% $539	+5% $596	+10% $652
Rate	-1.0pp $581	-0.5pp $560	base $539	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,038
• Closing costs: $2,524
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

2. 2026-05-21
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

3. 2026-05-07
   price $84,150 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

4. 2026-05-07
   price $84,150

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

5. 2026-05-04
   price $89,100 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

6. 2026-05-04
   price $89,100

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

7. 2026-04-27
   price $99,000 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

8. 2026-04-27
   price $99,000

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

9. 2026-04-16
   price $105,400 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

10. 2026-04-15
    price $105,400
11. 2026-02-24
    price $104,400 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

12. 2026-02-23
    price $104,400
13. 2026-02-16
    price $110,200 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

14. 2026-02-16
    price $110,200

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

15. 2026-01-29
    price $116,000 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

16. 2026-01-28
    price $116,000
17. 2026-01-17
    price $132,050 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

18. 2026-01-16
    price $132,050
19. 2025-12-16
    listed $139,000 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

20. 2025-12-16
    listed $139,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    With over 1600 SF this home offers plenty of space for your family to grow! Featuring 4 bedrooms and 1 bath . Large eat-in kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets! The home is bright and welcoming with lots of windows! The living room is perfect for family gatherings! There is a unfinished basement - good for storage and a 2 car detached garage. Home sits on approx . 6 acre - great for the children and pets to play!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,383 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,383 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,714
• − Property taxes: −$1,383
• − Insurance: −$421
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$2,448
• Taxable income: $5,461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,311
• After-tax cash flow: $5,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Morris Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624720
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,006
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9774
• State rank: #511 of 540 in MI

Livability — Otisville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #6551

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 4,536
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 19,519
• Household income: $46,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.45%
• Current HPI: 244.2061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-39.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $84,150 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $84,150 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $89,100 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $89,100 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $105,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $105,400 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $104,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $104,400 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $110,200 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $110,200 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $116,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $116,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $132,050 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $132,050 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-16 Listed $139,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-16 Listed $139,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,383 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.