14683 N Ar-23

Caulksville, AR 72951

$84,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 189 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $835/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $153/mo
• Annual: $1,838/yr
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $23,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (1.7% below list).
• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#317 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• County Line School District (rural): math 40% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #45 of 238 in AR (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: County Line Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #143 of 454 statewide, top 36%, 311 students, 72% FRL); County Line High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #38 of 292 statewide, top 14%, 254 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $85k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.