45 Trafford Rd

Chenango Bridge, NY 13901

$72,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,762/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $796/mo
• Annual: $9,554/yr
• Cap rate: 19.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.39%
• DSCR: 3.11
• 1% rule: 2.45%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $796 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#505 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Chenango Valley Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #339 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Port Dickinson Elementary School (408 students, 39% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $72k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 4.0% in Chenango Bridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.