45 Trafford Rd · Chenango Bridge, NY 13901

$72,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1994 1.00 ac lot Est $113k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INTERIOR HAS BEEN DONE OVER, NEW CARPET AND PAINTNICE LEVEL LOT WITH TREES. GOOD LOCATION!!

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Metal roof
• Insulation added

Tags

• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• INSULATION ADDED
• SPRAY FOAM INSULATION
• METAL ROOF
• LED LIGHT FIXTURES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area above grade approximately 1,200
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Level and wooded lot

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $796 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 4.0% in Chenango Bridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#505 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Chenango Valley Central School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #339 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Port Dickinson Elementary School (408 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $72k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.39%
• DSCR: 3.11
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,860
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 Kennedy Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+13%)	2mo	$127,500	$95	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $39,127
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $99,718
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13901

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,262/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $796

Break-even live

Break-even rent $754

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $837	-5% $817	+0% $796	+5% $776	+10% $755
Rent	-10% $657	-5% $727	+0% $796	+5% $866	+10% $935
Rate	-1.0pp $832	-0.5pp $814	base $796	+0.5pp $777	+1.0pp $759

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $72,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,262 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,262 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$2,262
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $9,014
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,163
• After-tax cash flow: $7,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chenango Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607290
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,938
• Composite: 44.78/100
• National rank: #2745
• State rank: #339 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chenango Bridge

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #8828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Broome County · 126,805 people
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,613
• Household income: $55,523
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Broome County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,989 people
• By 2030: 183,066 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 172,228 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 163,161 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 153,641 · -18.3%
• By 2100: 140,851 · -25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Broome

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.0pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+3.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+8.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.13%
• Current HPI: 300.7692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+29.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $72,000 GBAOR
• 2010-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records
• 2010-12-17 Sold (MLS) $39,900 GBAOR
• 2010-08-26 Listed $39,900 GBAOR
• 2009-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records
• 2005-04-14 Sold (MLS) $16,000 GBAOR
• 2005-02-23 Listed $17,900 GBAOR
• 2004-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $55,462 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,262 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.