51 Magnolia Dr

Cabot, AR 72023

$189,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,213 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,651/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $186/mo
• Annual: $2,234/yr
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (13.1% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $165k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AR, #2,695 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stagecoach Elementary School (math 66% / reading 40%, grade C, #73 of 454 statewide, top 16%, 483 students, 45% FRL); Cabot Middle School South (math 48% / reading 38%, grade D-, #70 of 201 statewide, top 38%, 717 students, 49% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.6% in Cabot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.