51 Magnolia Dr · Cabot, AR 72023

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,213 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $186k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained home located on a corner lot. New Roof in 2018, New Kitchen and appliances in 2018, New flooring in 2020. Good size kitchen, eat in area and living room. Separate laundry area has extra storage, Good size rooms, tons of storage. Backyard has a covered patio, privacy fenced yard. Seller is offering a $1500.00 allowance for paint. Agents see remarks

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options: VA, FHA, Conventional loans, or cash

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic door opener for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Electric service via cooperative; Natural gas; Insulated windows; Insulated doors
• Home design: Brick and metal/vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Wood fence; Gutters; Covered patio; Paved road access; Level, corner lot in a subdivision; Inside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker connection
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Electric water heater; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans; Kitchen counters with Formica
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer connection; Electric dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.6% in Cabot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AR, #2,695 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,053 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,589
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Magnolia Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,213 (0%)	1mo	$189,900	$157	99
34 Magnolia Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+4%)	0mo	$151,000	$119	84
14 Jacob Cv	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,228 (+1%)	9mo	$198,000	$161	77
25 Azalea Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,178 (-3%)	12mo	$160,000	$136	71
34 Orchid Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	14mo	$205,000	$158	70
25 Aleatha Cv	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,228 (+1%)	5mo	$160,000	$130	66
202 Bradley Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+4%)	8mo	$167,000	$133	65
55 Rosebud Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+9%)	17mo	$205,000	$155	63
46 Thunderbird Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+6%)	7mo	$192,000	$150	61
12 Knollwood	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+8%)	13mo	$189,900	$146	54
42 Thunderbird Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+9%)	15mo	$202,000	$153	49
19 Mustang	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+11%)	10mo	$215,000	$159	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,696
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-97
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72023

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $514/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,415

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $240	+0% $186	+5% $132	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $121	+0% $186	+5% $251	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $234	base $186	+0.5pp $137	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Azalea Dr Cabot, AR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	15d	1	0.30mi
18 Station Cir Cabot, AR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	978	$1,300	$1.33	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $189,900 New Listing
3. 2020-10-21
   soldstatus $135,000
4. 2020-10-19
   soldstatus $135,000 Sold 366-char remark

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Well maintained home located on a corner lot. New Roof in 2018, New Kitchen and appliances in 2018, New flooring in 2020. Good size kitchen, eat in area and living room. Separate laundry area has extra storage, Good size rooms, tons of storage. Backyard has a covered patio, privacy fenced yard. Seller is offering a $1500.00 allowance for paint. Agents see remarks

5. 2020-08-16
   historical Take Backups 366-char remark

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Well maintained home located on a corner lot. New Roof in 2018, New Kitchen and appliances in 2018, New flooring in 2020. Good size kitchen, eat in area and living room. Separate laundry area has extra storage, Good size rooms, tons of storage. Backyard has a covered patio, privacy fenced yard. Seller is offering a $1500.00 allowance for paint. Agents see remarks

6. 2020-08-14
   listed $139,900 New Listing 366-char remark

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Well maintained home located on a corner lot. New Roof in 2018, New Kitchen and appliances in 2018, New flooring in 2020. Good size kitchen, eat in area and living room. Separate laundry area has extra storage, Good size rooms, tons of storage. Backyard has a covered patio, privacy fenced yard. Seller is offering a $1500.00 allowance for paint. Agents see remarks

7. 2008-05-05
   soldstatus $117,000
8. 2002-10-07
   soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,215 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$702/yr (+$58/mo · 136.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$514
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$988
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$237
• After-tax cash flow: $2,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Cabot

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2695

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cabot, AR
• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 37,452
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 37,452
• Household income: $76,931
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.12%
• Current HPI: 182.3489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.19%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+108.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $189,900 CARMLS
• 2020-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-19 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CARMLS
• 2020-08-16 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2020-08-14 Listed $139,900 CARMLS
• 2008-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $514 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.