935 Fm 1280 W

Lovelady, TX 75851

$149,900C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,434/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $131/mo
• Annual: $1,577/yr
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.76%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (4.3% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $335 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#989 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lovelady ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #231 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lovelady El (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 285 students, 53% FRL); Lovelady J H H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 253 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.