935 Fm 1280 W · Lovelady, TX 75851

$149,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1995 1.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovelady Home on 1.9 acres! This 5/2 manufactured home on 1.9 acres is perfect for your family. Lots of room inside with a spacious family room, big dining area and a kitchen large enough for the whole family. The primary bedroom has a bath with a claw foot tub, seperate shower, double sink vanity and walk in closet. The four other bedrooms are off the living area and are all nice size. The bedrooms could be used as an office or a study. The laundry room is located right off the kitchen. Outside you will find a covered front porch and out back there is a large deck off the dining room that's perfect for entertaining. The property is tree shaded and is landscaped. The driveway is limestone leading to the carport and also has a circle driveway, The backyard has been kept in its natural state with big shady trees. The acreage is perfect for those wanting to have a few animals or Ag. projects. The location is handy to Lovelady Schools, downtown area ad churches.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Clawfoot soaking tub
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• GENEROUS DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• CLAWFOOT SOAKING TUB
• LARGE REAR DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway with additional parking
• Utilities: Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Farm property type; Single-story residence (all listed rooms on the first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1995
• Exterior features: Partially wooded grounds; Wooded lot; Mobile home allowed; Private road frontage; Asphalt road surface; Circular driveway; Additional parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedrooms: Four standard bedrooms (approx. 10x12, 10x12, 11x9, 11x12); First-floor primary bedroom: Approximately 16x15
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Separate shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#989 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lovelady ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #231 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lovelady J H H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 253 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $335 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,387 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.76%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,570
• Equity at exit: $45,210

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $37,102
• Equity at exit: $55,708

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75851

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,833/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $174	+0% $131	+5% $89	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $75	+0% $131	+5% $188	+10% $245
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $170	base $131	+0.5pp $93	+1.0pp $53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   remarks 683-char remark
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $149,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-10
    days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    remarks 679-char remark
16. 2026-06-03
    listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$910/yr (+$76/mo · 49.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,833
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$887
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$213
• After-tax cash flow: $1,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lovelady ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828410
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,424
• Composite: 40.13/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #231 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lovelady

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #989
• US rank: #17635

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lovelady, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,292

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,269 people
• By 2030: 20,568 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 19,255 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 17,980 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 15,214 · -28.5%
• By 2100: 11,720 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.4) · D 22.1% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -55.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.4 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Current HPI: 123.1716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2021-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-11-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-21 Listed $139,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+34.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,833 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.