11 Arverne Rd

Sound Beach, NY 11789

$389,990C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · Built 1933 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,885/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$1,005
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$816
• Net cashflow: $19/mo
• Annual: $232/yr
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $109,197

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($232/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $389k (0.4% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $384k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#458 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Rocky Point Union Free School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #152 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $249k; list at $390k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Sound Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.