11 Arverne Rd · Sound Beach, NY 11789

$389,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1933 0.36 ac lot $237/sqft · 32% below area Est $571k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MUCH BIGGER THAN IT APPEARS- FIXER UPPER-No Representations or warranties. SOLD "AS IS". Loads of Potential in this Ranch with wood floors on Nicely appointed .36 Acre lot and with detached 2 Car Garage. Primary Bedroom is 13-1"x 15-4" 2nd Bedroom 12'x9'-2" Enclosed porch with small closet area-7'3"x12'6". Living room is 12'-8" x 17'-4".

Key facts

• 3rd full bathroom
• 0.36 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• FINISHED SPACE ABOVE GARAGE
• 3RD FULL BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($232/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $389k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $384k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Sound Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#458 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Rocky Point Union Free School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #152 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $249k; list at $390k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $384,140 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $571,012
• List price: $389,990
• Delta: -31.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Deer Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+0%)	6mo	$570,000	$345	79
44 Lynbrook Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+5%)	5mo	$460,000	$267	79
11 Oceanside Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-7%)	4mo	$535,000	$349	72
7 Atlantic Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,805 (+10%)	3mo	$610,000	$338	58
38 Manhasset Rd	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	5mo	$576,000	$360	56
3 Beacon Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-3%)	3mo	$454,000	$284	54
74 Hempstead Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,608 (-2%)	1mo	$589,000	$366	53
73 Mitchell Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,481 (-10%)	8mo	$570,000	$385	53
20 Whitestone Rd #1486	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-12%)	4mo	$600,000	$417	50
11 Island Rd	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,398 (-15%)	2mo	$475,000	$340	48
126 Beacon Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-15%)	7mo	$595,000	$425	37
41 Great River Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,890 (+15%)	4mo	$610,000	$323	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-61,686
• Equity at exit: $58,149

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-51,004
• Equity at exit: $33,719

Cash invested: $109,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11789

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$842 /mo · $10,107/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$816
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,861

Max offer price $389,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $130	+0% $19	+5% $-91	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-134	+0% $19	+5% $173	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $119	base $19	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,498
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   MUCH BIGGER THAN IT APPEARS- FIXER UPPER-No Representations or warranties. SOLD "AS IS". Loads of Potential in this Ranch with wood floors on Nicely appointed .36 Acre lot and with detached 2 Car Garage. Primary Bedroom is 13-1"x 15-4" 2nd Bedroom 12'x9'-2" Enclosed porch with small closet area-7'3"x12'6". Living room is 12'-8" x 17'-4".

2. 2026-04-22
   listed $389,990 Active 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   MUCH BIGGER THAN IT APPEARS- FIXER UPPER-No Representations or warranties. SOLD "AS IS". Loads of Potential in this Ranch with wood floors on Nicely appointed .36 Acre lot and with detached 2 Car Garage. Primary Bedroom is 13-1"x 15-4" 2nd Bedroom 12'x9'-2" Enclosed porch with small closet area-7'3"x12'6". Living room is 12'-8" x 17'-4".

3. 2015-06-04
   historical
4. 2015-01-11
   listed $244,900
5. 2009-08-10
   soldstatus $249,100
6. 1995-06-22
   soldstatus $91,000
7. 1986-02-14
   soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,107 · $842/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,107 · $842/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$10,107
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,730
• − Management: −$3,730
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$6,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,461
• After-tax cash flow: $1,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rocky Point Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624840
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $86,256
• Composite: 59.12/100
• National rank: #953
• State rank: #152 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sound Beach

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #7991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sound Beach, NY
• City population: 7,447
• Population (ZIP): 7,447

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.99%
• Current HPI: 366.6474
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2499.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $389,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-11 Listed $244,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $249,100 Public Records
• 1995-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 1986-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,107 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.