894 W Moonshine Rd

Seymour, TX 76380

$150,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · Built 2000 · Other · Active · 362 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-706/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-706/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#191 in TX, #4,884 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Seymour ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #195 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP.
• Baylor County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?