894 W Moonshine Rd · Seymour, TX 76380

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · Other public records · 360 Days on market

Built 2000 0.50 ac lot $100/sqft · 122% above area $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully Remodeled and partially furnished Lake Kemp getaway on rare DOUBLE lot! Sleeps 12+ with 2 bedrooms plus an additional bunk room. Remodeled in 2023 - 2024 with new electrical wiring, water heater, vanity, toilet, sink, drywall, flooring, paint, and more. Property includes covered patio perfect for entertaining, and large storage shed. Amazing views and GREAT neighbors. Just 45 minutes to Wichita Falls, 2.5 hours to DFW. $100 per year HOA. Moonshine neighborhood is long term lease from adjacent Waggonner Ranch.

Key facts

• Amazing views
• Double lot
• Covered patio

Tags

• LAKE KEMP GETAWAY
• DOUBLE LOT
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• AMAZING VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-706/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#191 in TX, #4,884 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Seymour ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #195 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Baylor County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,494 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,559
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 122.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $50,692
• Equity at exit: $106,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $149,983
• Equity at exit: $203,608

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76380

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,215 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,938/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,289

Max offer price $139,607

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 360 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 359 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 358 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 357 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 356 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 355 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 354 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 351 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 350 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 349 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 348 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 345 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 344 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 343 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 342 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    price $150,000 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Fully Remodeled & partially furnished Lake Kemp getaway on rare DOUBLE lot! Sleeps 12+ with 2 bedrooms plus an additional bunk room. Remodeled in 2023 - 2024 with new electrical wiring, water heater, vanity, toilet, sink, drywall, flooring, paint, and more. Property includes covered patio perfect for entertaining, and large storage shed. Amazing views and GREAT neighbors. Just 45 min. to Wichita Falls, 2.5 hours to DFW. $100/year HOA. Moonshine neighborhood is long term lease from adjacent Waggonner Ranch.

17. 2026-04-18
    price $150,000 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Fully Remodeled & partially furnished Lake Kemp getaway on rare DOUBLE lot! Sleeps 12+ with 2 bedrooms plus an additional bunk room. Remodeled in 2023 - 2024 with new electrical wiring, water heater, vanity, toilet, sink, drywall, flooring, paint, and more. Property includes covered patio perfect for entertaining, and large storage shed. Amazing views and GREAT neighbors. Just 45 min. to Wichita Falls, 2.5 hours to DFW. $100/year HOA. Moonshine neighborhood is long term lease from adjacent Waggonner Ranch.

18. 2026-03-18
    price $199,000 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Fully Remodeled and partially furnished Lake Kemp getaway on rare DOUBLE lot! Sleeps 12+ with 2 bedrooms plus an additional bunk room. Remodeled in 2023 - 2024 with new electrical wiring, water heater, vanity, toilet, sink, drywall, flooring, paint, and more. Property includes covered patio perfect for entertaining, and large storage shed. Amazing views and GREAT neighbors. Just 45 minutes to Wichita Falls, 2.5 hours to DFW. $100 per year HOA. Moonshine neighborhood is long term lease from adjacent Waggonner Ranch.

19. 2025-11-13
    price $199,000 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Fully Remodeled & partially furnished Lake Kemp getaway on rare DOUBLE lot! Sleeps 12+ with 2 bedrooms plus an additional bunk room. Remodeled in 2023 - 2024 with new electrical wiring, water heater, vanity, toilet, sink, drywall, flooring, paint, and more. Property includes covered patio perfect for entertaining, and large storage shed. Amazing views and GREAT neighbors. Just 45 min. to Wichita Falls, 2.5 hours to DFW. $100/year HOA. Moonshine neighborhood is long term lease from adjacent Waggonner Ranch.

20. 2025-09-17
    price $205,000 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Fully Remodeled & partially furnished Lake Kemp getaway on rare DOUBLE lot! Sleeps 12+ with 2 bedrooms plus an additional bunk room. Remodeled in 2023 - 2024 with new electrical wiring, water heater, vanity, toilet, sink, drywall, flooring, paint, and more. Property includes covered patio perfect for entertaining, and large storage shed. Amazing views and GREAT neighbors. Just 45 min. to Wichita Falls, 2.5 hours to DFW. $100/year HOA. Moonshine neighborhood is long term lease from adjacent Waggonner Ranch.

21. 2025-09-17
    price $205,000 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Fully Remodeled & partially furnished Lake Kemp getaway on rare DOUBLE lot! Sleeps 12+ with 2 bedrooms plus an additional bunk room. Remodeled in 2023 - 2024 with new electrical wiring, water heater, vanity, toilet, sink, drywall, flooring, paint, and more. Property includes covered patio perfect for entertaining, and large storage shed. Amazing views and GREAT neighbors. Just 45 min. to Wichita Falls, 2.5 hours to DFW. $100/year HOA. Moonshine neighborhood is long term lease from adjacent Waggonner Ranch.

22. 2025-06-23
    listed $220,000 Active 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Fully Remodeled & partially furnished Lake Kemp getaway on rare DOUBLE lot! Sleeps 12+ with 2 bedrooms plus an additional bunk room. Remodeled in 2023 - 2024 with new electrical wiring, water heater, vanity, toilet, sink, drywall, flooring, paint, and more. Property includes covered patio perfect for entertaining, and large storage shed. Amazing views and GREAT neighbors. Just 45 min. to Wichita Falls, 2.5 hours to DFW. $100/year HOA. Moonshine neighborhood is long term lease from adjacent Waggonner Ranch.

23. 2025-06-23
    listed $220,000 Active 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Fully Remodeled & partially furnished Lake Kemp getaway on rare DOUBLE lot! Sleeps 12+ with 2 bedrooms plus an additional bunk room. Remodeled in 2023 - 2024 with new electrical wiring, water heater, vanity, toilet, sink, drywall, flooring, paint, and more. Property includes covered patio perfect for entertaining, and large storage shed. Amazing views and GREAT neighbors. Just 45 min. to Wichita Falls, 2.5 hours to DFW. $100/year HOA. Moonshine neighborhood is long term lease from adjacent Waggonner Ranch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,938 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$807/yr (+$67/mo · 41.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,938
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$793
• After-tax cash flow: $87/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seymour ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839780
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $36,292
• Composite: 41.94/100
• National rank: #3353
• State rank: #195 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seymour

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #191
• US rank: #4884

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,484

Population outlook (Baylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,534 people
• By 2030: 3,462 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 3,321 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 3,209 · -9.2%
• By 2075: 3,093 · -12.5%
• By 2100: 2,597 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.0% · R 88.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.5pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+77.0 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.22%
• Current HPI: 131.3235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-31.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $150,000 WFAOR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $199,000 WFAOR
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $205,000 WFAOR
• 2025-06-23 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $220,000 WFAOR

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,938 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.